43D-64R-52

The above diagram represents five positions: the one shown, plus four more in which White has made a second inside point (that you'll need to visualize).

The results of five rollouts are:

.......43D-64R-42 [K P30] "<=5
64P-43D-64R-42 [K P17] "<=10
53P-43D-64R-42 [K P12] "<=10
42P-43D-64R-42 [P K1] "<=10
31P-43D-64R-42 [P K1] "<=10

The trend of the K/P margin makes sense: The stronger White's board, the more expensive it is for Blue to get hit, hence the relative value of K (13/11* 6/1*) goes down and the relative value of P (9/4 6/4) goes up.

Why is the K/P margin the same (–.001) when Opp owns the 4pt vs the 5pt? I believe it is because if Blue hits then

(a) White's double aces fails to make a third inside point, and
(b) If White hits with a single ace, Blue will have the option to hit back with a 5, whereas he might not have the option to hit back with a 4 (or other).

In other words, the fearing-the-stronger-board trend still affects the 5pt position, but it is countered by the (a) and (b) factors above.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• What would you play? and why :)
  Christian Sorensen -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 11:18 a.m.
  • What would you play? and why :)
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 11:24 a.m.
    • What would you play? and why :)
      Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 1:35 p.m.
      • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
        Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 4:38 p.m.
        • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 4:44 p.m.
          • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
            Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 5:16 p.m.
            • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 5:26 p.m.
              • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
                Sebastiaan kuijs -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 7:50 p.m.
                • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
                  Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 8:33 p.m.
                  • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
                    Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 2:08 p.m.
        • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
          Sebastiaan Kuijs -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 4:45 p.m.
        • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
          Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 5:30 p.m.
          • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
            Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 7:05 p.m.
            • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
              Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 10:12 p.m.
        • Perhaps You Should Consider Parcheesi
          higonefive -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 6:10 p.m.
  • What would you play? and why :)
    Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 12:51 p.m.
  • What would you play? and why :)
    pontiac -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 4:38 p.m.
  • 43D 64R 52?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 24 January 2012, at 7:01 p.m.
    • xxP-43D-64R-52, four positions
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 4:49 a.m.
      • xxP-43D-64R-52, four positions
        Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 6:56 a.m.
        • xxP-43D-64R-52, four positions
          Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 6:57 a.m.
      • 64P-43D-64R-52, rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 10:01 p.m.
      • 53P-43D-64R-52, rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 10:41 p.m.
      • 42P-43D-64R-52, rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 11:42 p.m.
        • 42P-43D-64R-52, rollout
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 1:56 a.m.
          • 42P-43D-64R-52, rollout
            Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 7:08 a.m.
          • 42P-43D-64R-52, rollout
            Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 7:11 a.m.
      • 31P-43D-64R-52, rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 5:05 a.m.
      • ( xxP)-43D-64R-52, summary of five positions
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 6:04 a.m.
    • 43D 64R 52?
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 4:54 a.m.
      • 43D-64R-52, rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 6:28 p.m.
  • What would you play? and why :)
    Turz -- Wednesday, 25 January 2012, at 10:13 a.m.

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