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53P-32S-21X-54Z-54@-42

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 2 February 2012, at 6:23 a.m.

In Response To: 53P-32S-21X-54Z-54@-42 (Timothy Chow)


1O '2X1O '3X '2X ' ' '3O

'1X ' '2X5O '4O ' '1O5X

53P-32S-21X-54Z-54@-42


Casper's analysis is insightful, as usual.

Making the 4pt feels natural and I think most people would choose it (including myself). The 9pt is closer on the 4pt's heels than I would have guessed.

IMO, Blue is not close enough to a complete escape for easier clearing later to be the main reason to prefer the 9pt to the 11pt, though that's part of it. I think the main reason is that henceforward it will be both less fruitful and more uncomfortable for White to scoot up her blot to (or enter another checker onto) her 22pt or 21pt, when Blue's 9pt is directly bearing on those two points (nevertheless she might feel so obligated rather than leave a blot elsewhere).

24/20 is an obvious improvement to Blue's position yet p (making the 9pt) beats S (Split, 24/20 13/11) by .038 in the rollout. It therefore seems that owning the 9pt in this position is superior to owning the 11pt by .05 to .06. That is, perhaps, the most instructive comparison to take away from the rollout result.

Nack

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