The best reply to opening 52D is 21$ (not 21S, which is an error of about .06). However, it is possible to reach the 52D-21S-22 position playing well; e.g., 52S-41U-62H-65R-21H-F-54R-21S-21.
Below are three 3-ply AtS rollouts for 52D-21S-22, followed by money rollouts.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 164 | | 1 point match | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---E-D--AdCa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:1:10 |
| 52D-21S-22-d |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.131 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.57% (G:21.01% B:3.13%)
43.43% (G:12.89% B:1.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.129...+0.134) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 54 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.122 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.09% (G:20.74% B:2.88%)
43.91% (G:11.26% B:1.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.119...+0.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70283620
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 164 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 160
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---E-D--AdCa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:1:0:1:2:10 |
| 52D-21S-22-s |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20(2) | eq: -0.026 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.63% (G:16.65% B:1.53%)
44.37% (G:6.93% B:0.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.029...-0.023) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.079 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.95% (G:20.68% B:2.92%)
44.05% (G:9.92% B:1.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.083...-0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 00 minute |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38901097
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 164 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---E-D--AdCa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:1:1:2:10 |
| 52D-21S-22-g |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.509 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.42% (G:19.05% B:1.61%)
43.58% (G:13.10% B:1.78%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.505...+0.513) - [99.9%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.500 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.87% (G:17.15% B:2.07%)
42.13% (G:12.76% B:1.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.496...+0.504) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 36 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60998966
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
Summary of the three AtS scores:
d[M E9] "<10
s[@ E53] "<5
g[I M9] "<5
Key: M = Mayfair split (24/22 13/11 6/4(2)), E = Each (24/22(2) 6/4(2)), @ = anchor (24/20(2)), I = Inside2 (13/11 8/6 6/4(2)). Explanation of nacbracs.
To achieve a T4 (technical four-score position), we just need E to emerge atop the money rollout. Unfortunately, we come up shy for both (my) 3-ply and (Ken's) 4-ply:
[M E1] "<=324 .............. [M E2] "^116
Rollout details are below.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 164 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---E-D--AdCa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.297 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.90% (G:18.12% B:1.01%)
43.10% (G:11.91% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.296...+0.298) - [96.8%]
Duration: 7 days 22 hours 54 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.296 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.52% (G:17.13% B:0.77%)
43.48% (G:9.97% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.295...+0.297) - [3.2%]
Duration: 8 days 00 hour 40 minutes |
|
| |
1 324000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 80211775
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 164 | Unlimited Game
Beaver | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---E-D--AdCa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:2:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/11 6/4(2) | eq: +0.302 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.94% (G:18.32% B:0.91%)
43.06% (G:11.85% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.300...+0.303) - [98.1%]
Duration: 4 days 13 hours 08 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.300 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.53% (G:17.35% B:0.73%)
43.47% (G:9.99% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.298...+0.301) - [1.9%]
Duration: 4 days 16 hours 53 minutes |
|
| |
1 116640 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
Nack