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Still not doubling early at DMP!

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 11:22 p.m.

In Response To: Still not doubling early at DMP! (Taper_Mike)

How about that. So the original position is a double by +0.040 EMG, according to the rollout. +0.040 is about +0.7% MWC. If we move the outfield point one point closer (so Blue doesn't win as often after double/take/miss ... but Blue's 6-6 and 3-3 are not blocked ... but 5-5 is):

2-away all, Blue on roll.

White	61
Blue	89
Position ID: b7NlAADdbgMABg Match ID: cAngAFAAKAAE

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0522)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.1794	(Money: -0.1903)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.4589
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.4589
3.	Double, take	-0.5111	-0.0522
Proper cube action:		No double, take (3.5%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.4048 0.0344 0.0015 - 0.5952 0.0351 0.0006 -0.1794 -0.4589 Standard error 0.0004 0.0008 0.0006 - 0.0004 0.0012 0.0002 0.0013 0.0018 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.4096 0.0815 0.0020 - 0.5904 0.0913 0.0011 -0.5111 -0.5111 Standard error 0.0008 0.0046 0.0007 - 0.0008 0.0047 0.0005 0.0046 0.0046
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2014 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907977124 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Blue's GWC drops from 42.34% to 40.96%. No double by 0.052 EMG in this rollout (0.94% MWC).

Messages In This Thread

• Still not doubling early at DMP!
  Taper_Mike -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 4:05 a.m.
  • Still not doubling early at DMP!
    Stick -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 4:15 a.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP!
      Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 4:38 a.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP!
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 8:49 p.m.
  • Still not doubling early at DMP!
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 7:28 a.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP!
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 3:28 p.m.
      • Still not doubling early at DMP!
        Stick -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 3:42 p.m.
        • Still not doubling early at DMP!
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 3:51 p.m.
  • Still not doubling early at DMP!
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 5:37 p.m.
  • Still not doubling early at DMP!
    Steve Mellen -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 6:11 p.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP!
      Stick -- Monday, 13 February 2012, at 8:37 p.m.
      • Still not doubling early at DMP!
        Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 8:55 p.m.
        • Still not doubling early at DMP!
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 11:16 p.m.
          • Still not doubling early at DMP!
            Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 1:18 a.m.
  • Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant
    Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:50 a.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 8:51 p.m.
      • Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant *** Rollout ***
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 9:13 p.m.
  • Still not doubling early at DMP!
    Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 8:57 p.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP! *** Rollout ***
      Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 9:05 p.m.
    • Still not doubling early at DMP!
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 11:22 p.m.
      • Still not doubling early at DMP!
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 11:56 p.m.