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Rollout: Holding game...sorta kinda maybe?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 17 February 2012, at 3:31 p.m.

In Response To: Holding game...sorta kinda maybe? (Timothy Chow)

Another example where I failed to take into account the substantial difference between a redouble at 7a6a and a money redouble.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 146
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-AabCaDb-B-C-----babbb--:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.42% (G: 18.77% B: 0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.58% (G: 7.02% B: 0.30%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.19% (G: 20.96% B: 0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.81% (G: 7.09% B: 0.57%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.482
Redouble:+1.094
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.836 (-0.114)
Redouble/Take:+0.950
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.050)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.010 (+0.826...+0.846)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.014 (+0.937...+0.964)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 10 hours 10 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-AabCaDb-B-C-----babbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.04% (G: 19.69% B: 0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.96% (G: 7.21% B: 0.22%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.35% (G: 20.82% B: 0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.65% (G: 7.03% B: 0.23%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.469
Redouble:+0.973
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.749
Redouble/Take:+0.742 (-0.007)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.251)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.008 (+0.741...+0.757)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.012 (+0.729...+0.754)
Double Decision confidence: 84.1%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 24 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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