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original pos. and variants - RO

Posted By: pontiac
Date: Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 12:44 p.m.

In Response To: BootCamp problem (Daniel Murphy)

Daniel thanks for deep analysis. needs much free time to read read again and understand for me.

This is the original pos. from Bootcamp. Look at the differencies between 2 plays. It is not money but 11 point match 0-0 means nearly money game.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 88
11 point match
pip: 72
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCCC-A-----b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout118/14 18/13eq: -0,450
Player:
Opponent:
38,10% (G:0,48% B:0,01%)
61,90% (G:15,11% B:0,60%)
Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,459...-0,442) - [100,0%]
Duration: 59,8 seconds
2.Rollout218/9eq: -0,750 (-0,299)
Player:
Opponent:
27,99% (G:0,66% B:0,01%)
72,01% (G:4,76% B:0,12%)
Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,759...-0,740) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
 
1 910 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81400568
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 911 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81400568
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

I wonder about the dices and changed them, which give more shots for white after escape both checkers. Now interestingly, 2 plays are close and I dont understand the differencies from original pos.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 88
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCCD-------b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 34

1.Rollout118/15 18/14eq: -0,706
Player:
Opponent:
33,13% (G:0,55% B:0,01%)
66,87% (G:14,93% B:0,45%)
Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,715...-0,698) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds
2.Rollout118/11eq: -0,741 (-0,035)
Player:
Opponent:
28,02% (G:0,64% B:0,01%)
71,98% (G:4,33% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,750...-0,731) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73978917
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

first question in the thread, (4a-7a)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 88
7 point match
pip: 70
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCCD-------b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:34:3:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 34

1.Rollout118/11eq: -0,809
Player:
Opponent:
28,16% (G:0,68% B:0,03%)
71,84% (G:4,39% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,817...-0,800) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
2.Rollout118/15 18/14eq: -0,854 (-0,045)
Player:
Opponent:
33,23% (G:0,53% B:0,00%)
66,77% (G:15,22% B:0,45%)
Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,862...-0,845) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81400568
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

second question, (7a-6a)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 88
7 point match
pip: 70
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCCD-------b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:34:0:1:0:7:10
Blue to play 34

1.Rollout118/15 18/14eq: -0,768
Player:
Opponent:
33,18% (G:0,56% B:0,01%)
66,82% (G:15,19% B:0,44%)
Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,776...-0,760) - [91,3%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds
2.Rollout118/11eq: -0,775 (-0,007)
Player:
Opponent:
28,15% (G:0,60% B:0,01%)
71,85% (G:4,29% B:0,07%)
Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,783...-0,768) - [8,7%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81400568
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Can anyone explain these results? Why are they too different?

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