Daniel thanks for deep analysis. needs much free time to read read again and understand for me.
This is the original pos. from Bootcamp. Look at the differencies between 2 plays. It is not money but 11 point match 0-0 means nearly money game.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 88 | 11 point match | pip: 72 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CCCC-A-----b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:11:10 |
Blue to play 54 |
1. | Rollout1 | 18/14 18/13 | eq: -0,450 |
| Player: Opponent: | 38,10% (G:0,48% B:0,01%) 61,90% (G:15,11% B:0,60%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,459...-0,442) - [100,0%] Duration: 59,8 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout2 | 18/9 | eq: -0,750 (-0,299) |
| Player: Opponent: | 27,99% (G:0,66% B:0,01%) 72,01% (G:4,76% B:0,12%) | Conf.: ± 0,010 (-0,759...-0,740) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds |
|
|
1 910 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81400568 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 911 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81400568 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
I wonder about the dices and changed them, which give more shots for white after escape both checkers. Now interestingly, 2 plays are close and I dont understand the differencies from original pos.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 88 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 70 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CCCD-------b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 34 |
1. | Rollout1 | 18/15 18/14 | eq: -0,706 |
| Player: Opponent: | 33,13% (G:0,55% B:0,01%) 66,87% (G:14,93% B:0,45%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,715...-0,698) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 minute 47 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 18/11 | eq: -0,741 (-0,035) |
| Player: Opponent: | 28,02% (G:0,64% B:0,01%) 71,98% (G:4,33% B:0,07%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,750...-0,731) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 73978917 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
first question in the thread, (4a-7a)

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 88 | 7 point match | pip: 70 score: 3
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CCCD-------b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:34:3:0:0:7:10 |
Blue to play 34 |
1. | Rollout1 | 18/11 | eq: -0,809 |
| Player: Opponent: | 28,16% (G:0,68% B:0,03%) 71,84% (G:4,39% B:0,07%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,817...-0,800) - [100,0%] Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 18/15 18/14 | eq: -0,854 (-0,045) |
| Player: Opponent: | 33,23% (G:0,53% B:0,00%) 66,77% (G:15,22% B:0,45%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,862...-0,845) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81400568 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
second question, (7a-6a)

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1 pip: 88 | 7 point match | pip: 70 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CCCD-------b----bBcbbbb--:0:0:1:34:0:1:0:7:10 |
Blue to play 34 |
1. | Rollout1 | 18/15 18/14 | eq: -0,768 |
| Player: Opponent: | 33,18% (G:0,56% B:0,01%) 66,82% (G:15,19% B:0,44%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,776...-0,760) - [91,3%] Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 18/11 | eq: -0,775 (-0,007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 28,15% (G:0,60% B:0,01%) 71,85% (G:4,29% B:0,07%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,783...-0,768) - [8,7%] Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 81400568 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
Can anyone explain these results? Why are they too different?