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Rollout: My Achilles heel again

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 19 February 2012, at 2:47 a.m.

In Response To: My Achilles heel again (Timothy Chow)

I thought about doubling here but was spooked by the possibility of failing to cover my 3pt. This actually came up in a practice match against XG; I forget the exact score but it was money-like. In a chouette I would have been more likely to double, but still would have hesitated a while.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 97
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 93
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aBCABCa--A-----bB-A-bbcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.13% (G: 21.52% B: 0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.87% (G: 8.47% B: 0.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.57% (G: 22.59% B: 0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.43% (G: 8.56% B: 0.20%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.474
Redouble:+0.985
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.649 (-0.167)
Redouble/Take:+0.816
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.184)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and Cube Decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.007 (+0.642...+0.656)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.017 (+0.799...+0.834)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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