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Re: Very Interesting Gammon v. Games Won Tradeoff

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Tuesday, 10 October 2006, at 12:16 p.m.

In Response To: Very Interesting Gammon v. Games Won Tradeoff (Stick)

Playing 16/5 (no hit) practically ensures a win, but no gammons. 16/11*/5 gets lots more gammons, but 11/36 you're cubed out or even lose a gammon - call it a straight loss for ease of reckoning. Since a loss is worth 2 gammons, Blue has to win 22 gammons in the remaining 25 games, i.e. 88%. White will need 51 pips to save gammon, which will be tough but possible - IF Blue completes the closeout. I can't see Blue winning enough gammons to justify the slot.

What if Blue hedges his bets with 16/11* 7/1 which leaves 4 returns (2 fewer than 9/3)? Now Blue has 7 numbers to complete the prime, and reasonble gammon chances even if he fails but White dances for a couple of rolls. The four losing return shots mean that Blue has to win 8 out the remaining 32 games. 25% gammons looks achievable, so my play is 16/11* 7/1.

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