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cube at -4-4 ***Rollout***

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Saturday, 25 February 2012, at 9:14 a.m.

In Response To: cube at -4-4 (Dmitriy Obukhov)

XGR++ thinks its a take at -4-4 worth 0.903. As Rollout shows this is slightly too good. In practice one should double since many would take. No double for money though.

		White is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 88 7 point match pip: 118 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AbCBBBBB--------bAecba-:0:0:1:00:3:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.28% (G:9.66% B:0.29%)	71.34% (G:9.78% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.72% (G:2.43% B:0.03%)	28.66% (G:2.36% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.529	+1.351
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+1.018	±0.016 (+1.001..+1.034)
Double/Take:	+1.029 (+0.011)	±0.018 (+1.011..+1.046)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.018)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 61.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		98.4%
Take Decision confidence:		99.9%
Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 88 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---AbCBBBBB--------bAecba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.89% (G:8.69% B:0.24%)	71.89% (G:8.36% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.11% (G:2.01% B:0.02%)	28.11% (G:1.84% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.507	+1.011
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.853	±0.011 (+0.842..+0.865)
Double/Take:	+0.838 (-0.015)	±0.012 (+0.826..+0.850)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.147)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:		96.6%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Messages In This Thread

• cube at -4-4
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 1:57 p.m.
  • cube at -4-4
    David -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 2:46 p.m.
  • cube at -4-4
    Stick -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 7:01 p.m.
    • cube at -4-4
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 7:33 p.m.
    • cube at -4-4
      Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 8:30 p.m.
  • cube at -4-4
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 3:01 p.m.
  • cube at -4-4 ***Rollout***
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 25 February 2012, at 9:14 a.m.
    • cube at -4-4 ***Rollout***
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 25 February 2012, at 2:59 p.m.