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ROLLOUT Alert! Variable Settings

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 4:10 p.m.

In Response To: How the #%!$@! is this a double? (David Rockwell)





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 118
7 point match
pip: 108
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BCBCBAa------bdddB-----:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.13% (G:8.43% B:0.21%) 57.39% (G:7.84% B:0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.87% (G:2.86% B:0.10%) 42.61% (G:3.02% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.210 +0.314
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.267 (-0.047)±0.071 (+0.196..+0.338)
Double/Take:+0.314±0.081 (+0.233..+0.395)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.686)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3600 Games rolled.
Dice Seed: 63296968
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:80.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 118
7 point match
pip: 108
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BCBCBAa------bdddB-----:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.31% (G:8.12% B:0.09%) 57.29% (G:6.96% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.69% (G:2.91% B:0.15%) 42.71% (G:2.15% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.206 +0.286
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.247 (-0.040)±0.072 (+0.175..+0.318)
Double/Take:+0.286±0.079 (+0.208..+0.365)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.714)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
3600 Games rolled.
Dice Seed: 63296968
Moves: 3-ply Red, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:76.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 16 minutes 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 118
7 point match
pip: 108
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BCBCBAa------bdddB-----:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.30% (G:8.06% B:0.14%) 57.36% (G:7.22% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.70% (G:3.16% B:0.16%) 42.64% (G:2.68% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.201 +0.297
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.243 (-0.054)±0.009 (+0.234..+0.252)
Double/Take:+0.297±0.010 (+0.286..+0.307)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.703)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 63296968
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

NBM

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