R4 with double 1s (confirmed on 3-ply)

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R4 with double 1s (confirmed on 3-ply)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 8 March 2012, at 6:16 a.m.

In Response To: Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions) (Nack Ballard)

65R-64P-21D-33S-32@-52S-43H-53Z-51H-43R-
64H-64R-61S-31P-31D-65R-42D-43H-11Q-64S-
43H-F-64R-31U-54P-21H-51K-11e-53-11

R4

XGR++ correctly identifies the best play at three of the four scores. It claims that the best play at gammon go is the same as the best play for money (and some respondents aligned with exactly that), but the rollouts show differently.
This position is a confirmed R4 (real four-score position, no ties), as illustrated below.
(1) money

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBaBaB-B-Bb-C--aabbbb--B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 6/5*(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.060
Player:
Opponent: 44.52% (G:24.62% B:3.63%)
55.48% (G:17.22% B:1.18%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.066...-0.054) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 30 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 4/3*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: -0.092 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 43.58% (G:25.16% B:2.25%)
56.42% (G:18.23% B:1.22%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.097...-0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 30 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/22 4/3*(2) eq: -0.118 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 44.95% (G:20.35% B:2.58%)
55.05% (G:18.14% B:1.11%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.128...-0.108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
4. Rollout² 24/22 6/5*(2) eq: -0.185 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent: 43.87% (G:19.47% B:2.00%)
56.13% (G:18.16% B:1.13%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.194...-0.175) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes
5. Rollout³ 6/5*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: -0.185 (-0.124)
Player:
Opponent: 41.60% (G:23.05% B:1.87%)
58.40% (G:18.87% B:1.28%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.194...-0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 45 seconds
6. Rollout² 24/22(2) eq: -0.239 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent: 43.27% (G:12.96% B:0.78%)
56.73% (G:14.83% B:0.62%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.248...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 17 minutes
7. Rollout³ 24/22 2/1*(2) eq: -0.265 (-0.204)
Player:
Opponent: 42.05% (G:18.42% B:1.18%)
57.95% (G:18.46% B:1.02%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.273...-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
8. Rollout³ 24/23(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.283 (-0.222)
Player:
Opponent: 40.75% (G:18.36% B:2.16%)
59.25% (G:18.83% B:1.06%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.291...-0.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
9. Rollout³ 24/23 13/12 6/5*(2) eq: -0.303 (-0.242)
Player:
Opponent: 40.78% (G:18.37% B:1.95%)
59.22% (G:20.42% B:1.51%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.312...-0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes

¹ 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16137587
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16137587
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96379456
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

(2) dmp

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155

1 point match

pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBaBaB-B-Bb-C--aabbbb--B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 4/3*(2) eq: -0.111
Player:
Opponent: 44.45% (G:23.53% B:6.42%)
55.55% (G:18.31% B:3.13%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.113...-0.109) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 6/5*(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.126 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 43.68% (G:26.83% B:8.79%)
56.32% (G:16.29% B:2.63%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.129...-0.124) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 22 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 4/3*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: -0.133 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent: 43.35% (G:28.41% B:3.12%)
56.65% (G:17.87% B:2.94%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.135...-0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 6/5*(2) eq: -0.136 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 43.20% (G:22.09% B:5.25%)
56.80% (G:17.75% B:2.94%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.138...-0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 20 minutes
5. Rollout² 24/22(2) eq: -0.141 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent: 42.94% (G:16.62% B:2.36%)
57.06% (G:15.81% B:1.75%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.144...-0.138) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
6. Rollout² 24/22 2/1*(2) eq: -0.169 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent: 41.54% (G:21.85% B:1.95%)
58.46% (G:18.70% B:2.99%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.172...-0.166) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
7. Rollout³ 6/5*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: -0.183 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent: 40.87% (G:25.68% B:3.18%)
59.13% (G:18.13% B:3.10%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.186...-0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
8. Rollout³ 24/23 13/12 4/3*(2) eq: -0.191 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent: 40.47% (G:21.46% B:5.47%)
59.53% (G:21.27% B:3.84%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.194...-0.187) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
9. Rollout³ 24/23(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.195 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent: 40.23% (G:21.04% B:5.80%)
59.77% (G:19.28% B:3.36%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.199...-0.192) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
10. Rollout² 24/23(2) 6/5*(2) eq: -0.199 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent: 40.04% (G:19.94% B:4.54%)
59.96% (G:19.23% B:3.32%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.203...-0.196) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
11. Rollout² 24/23 13/12 6/5*(2) eq: -0.200 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent: 40.00% (G:20.96% B:5.00%)
60.00% (G:20.62% B:3.93%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.203...-0.197) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
12. Rollout³ 24/23 10/9 6/5*(2) eq: -0.219 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent: 39.06% (G:20.80% B:5.44%)
60.94% (G:20.91% B:3.54%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.222...-0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16137587
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16137587
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36437179
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

(3) gammon save

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155

2 point match
Crawford

pip: 147
score: 1

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBaBaB-B-Bb-C--aabbbb--B-:0:0:1:11:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) eq: -0.439
Player:
Opponent: 42.97% (G:16.15% B:2.31%)
57.03% (G:14.90% B:1.32%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.443...-0.435) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 6/5*(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.487 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 44.14% (G:26.24% B:8.46%)
55.86% (G:18.49% B:2.78%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.492...-0.482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 4/3*(2) eq: -0.493 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 44.71% (G:22.88% B:6.29%)
55.29% (G:19.34% B:2.87%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.497...-0.488) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 4/3*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: -0.512 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent: 44.02% (G:28.55% B:3.61%)
55.98% (G:19.59% B:3.14%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.517...-0.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
5. Rollout¹ 24/22 6/5*(2) eq: -0.521 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent: 43.66% (G:22.04% B:4.75%)
56.34% (G:19.72% B:2.42%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.526...-0.516) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
6. Rollout¹ 24/22 2/1*(2) eq: -0.558 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent: 42.23% (G:21.76% B:2.18%)
57.77% (G:20.13% B:2.41%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (-0.562...-0.554) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes
7. Rollout¹ 6/5*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: -0.574 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent: 41.49% (G:25.70% B:2.95%)
58.51% (G:20.22% B:3.43%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.580...-0.569) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
8. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.590 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent: 40.40% (G:20.44% B:5.26%)
59.60% (G:19.88% B:2.71%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.594...-0.585) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
9. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 6/5*(2) eq: -0.591 (-0.152)
Player:
Opponent: 40.09% (G:18.91% B:4.19%)
59.91% (G:19.63% B:2.60%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.596...-0.586) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
10. Rollout² 24/23 13/12 6/5*(2) eq: -0.626 (-0.188)
Player:
Opponent: 40.33% (G:20.66% B:5.12%)
59.67% (G:21.65% B:3.58%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.631...-0.621) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
11. Rollout² 24/23 10/9 6/5*(2) eq: -0.653 (-0.214)
Player:
Opponent: 39.99% (G:20.59% B:5.15%)
60.01% (G:22.65% B:3.95%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.658...-0.648) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24110791
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71343977
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

(4) gammon go

White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 155

2 point match
Crawford

pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aBaBaB-B-Bb-C--aabbbb--B-:0:0:1:11:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 4/3*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: +0.396
Player:
Opponent: 44.28% (G:25.52% B:4.28%)
55.72% (G:17.59% B:2.91%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.391...+0.401) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 6/5*(2) 4/3*(2) eq: +0.363 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 44.54% (G:23.62% B:8.06%)
55.46% (G:16.53% B:2.69%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (+0.358...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 4/3*(2) eq: +0.294 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent: 45.24% (G:19.43% B:5.70%)
54.76% (G:18.11% B:2.88%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.289...+0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes
4. Rollout¹ 6/5*(2) 2/1*(2) eq: +0.288 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent: 41.56% (G:22.83% B:4.37%)
58.44% (G:17.81% B:3.23%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.283...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
5. Rollout¹ 24/22 6/5*(2) eq: +0.251 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent: 44.39% (G:18.18% B:4.75%)
55.61% (G:17.44% B:2.92%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+0.246...+0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 32 minutes

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16137587
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Summary:
(1) money: .6/5*(2) 4/3*(2) ..best by .032
(2) dmp: ....24/22 6/5*(2) .....best by .015
(3) save: ....24/22(2) .............best by .048
(4) go: .......4/3*(2) 3/1*(2) ...best by .033

The disadvantage of 4/3*(2) 3/1*(2) is that White needs merely to roll a 5 to make an advanced anchor. The advantage is that the 10pt and 8pt builders work maximally to execute a blitz, of special benefit at (gammon) go.
Answers to questions 5, 6 and 7 will be posted separately.
Nack



R4

Messages In This Thread

Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 5:28 a.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Stick -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 6:00 a.m.
  - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 6:43 a.m.
    - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
      Stick -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 6:50 a.m.
    - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
      Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 1:04 p.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 8:44 a.m.
  - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 5:53 p.m.
  - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
    garyo -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 9:37 a.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 10:34 a.m.
  - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 5:31 p.m.
    - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
      Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 7:16 p.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 8:37 p.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 3:56 a.m.
  - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
    Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 5:25 a.m.
    - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 5:39 a.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Turz -- Wednesday, 7 March 2012, at 10:41 a.m.
- R4 with double 1s (confirmed on 3-ply)
  Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 March 2012, at 6:16 a.m.
  - Rollouts above *NM*
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 8 March 2012, at 6:18 a.m.
  - R4 with double 1s (confirmed on 3-ply)
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 11 March 2012, at 6:06 p.m.
    - R4 with double 1s (confirmed on 3-ply)
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 2:11 a.m.
  - DMP typo
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2016, at 12:51 a.m.
- Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 5:47 a.m.
  - Answer to #5 above
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 6:12 a.m.
  - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Tuesday, 20 March 2012, at 4:19 a.m.
    - Tricky double 1s (four score and seven questions)
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 21 March 2012, at 10:11 p.m.
- Answer to #6
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 6:28 a.m.
- Answer to #7
  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 6:54 a.m.
  - Answer to #7
    Stick -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 7:17 a.m.
  - Rollouts
    Stick -- Sunday, 18 March 2012, at 1:21 p.m.

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