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Instructive Fourth Roll 63

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 24 March 2012, at 1:46 p.m.

54S-11S-53D-63

I could be way wrong in assuming that almost everyone would play this 63 quickly and make the same naive running play (22/13) I would have done. If I make this post without giving the rollout result, everyone will know from the QF to look for some play other than running. I am therefore posting the rollout result and challenging bgonliners to provide an instructive explantion for this problem.





White is peever

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Kim Kardashian
XGID=-a-a-BC-C---cE---e-e--A-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout122/16 13/10eq: +0.316
Player:
Opponent:		58.19% (G:14.19% B:0.64%)
41.81% (G:11.60% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.301...+0.330) - [100.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout122/13eq: +0.257 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		56.69% (G:13.10% B:0.49%)
43.31% (G:10.84% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.244...+0.270) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 34 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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