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GS, GG or DMP move?!

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 3 April 2012, at 2:34 a.m.

In Response To: GS, GG or DMP move?! (rambiz)

Interesting. I think I'd play 13/6 but it's not real clear. There's a lot going on -- the race, White's slightly better timing for waiting, White's home board blot, and cube action after a miss.

It's not hard to calculate how often White hits in his next two turns after 13/7. It's about the same as the chance of getting hit on either of two consecutive 11/36 shots -- as if Blue would play 8/1 now followed by a miss followed by 5-4 played two down. I'll take your word, or hint, for it, though, that 8/1 is the "dmp" play, and actually gets hit less often than after 13/6. But balancing however many more more times Blue is hit after 13/6 (about 51.5% on the next two turns, compared to obviously more than 30.5% after 8/1), 13/6 gains on a lot nice double/takes on many of White's misses.

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