A friend of mine ( Ido Levi from Haifa) send me this Tuesday asking if I would hit and what reasons I could come up with not to hit. I probably would hit as would many without QF I am sure. Mean reason I could come with you won't hit is that after the hit the very least white could do was to slot one of the points ( 18,21,22) white wants to make without ever giving up her anchor at 24.As currently only 22,33,66 and perhaps 65 are the only riskfree rolls going forward. Plus white has some very good entrance numbers from the bar as indirects hits with 36,45, rolls that anchor 43,32,33 and a 44 that enters /slots and even further primes blue. Even a 61 might lead to an advanced anchor as white can slot freely the bar without giving up her anchor. So it looks hitting rather hurts than help. Blue with a small racing lead has already a bit more advanced anchor and probably wants white to be (counter)primed , being stuck on 24. At least that is what I was able to come up with.
Stick ( who I asked if he agreed the above might be right) also pointed out that if you do not hit and white would roll a 35 or a 62, you would have blot to shoot at from the bar as the 6 to cover the blot is duplicated.
There is NO score where hitting is right. Gammon go off course is the only score where it doesn’t go into blunder territory .Than 8/6 seems to be a better follow up hitting . Gammon safe and DMP anchoring up is a bit better after hitting yet still wrong. ( Even on a small big variation like having an anchor down in the race at dmp, where you won’t hit but there are also some like these to be made where you do hit. So this is just 1 variation I came up with you also won't hit ).
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#1
  White is Player 2
score: 2 pip: 145  11 point match  pip: 137 score: 5
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCBCAbBabcbbAaA:0:0:1:21:5:2:0:11:10 
Blue to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22  eq: +0,056 
 Player: Opponent:  52,37% (G:19,89% B:1,37%) 47,63% (G:12,53% B:0,49%)  Conf.: ± 0,015 (+0,041...+0,071)  [100,0%] Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 24/22  eq: 0,033 (0,090) 
 Player: Opponent:  49,18% (G:21,07% B:2,62%) 50,82% (G:12,61% B:0,59%)  Conf.: ± 0,016 (0,049...0,018)  [0,0%] Duration: 3 hours 00 minute 

3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 8/6  eq: 0,051 (0,107) 
 Player: Opponent:  48,64% (G:22,78% B:2,92%) 51,36% (G:13,94% B:0,84%)  Conf.: ± 0,020 (0,071...0,031)  [0,0%] Duration: 2 hours 53 minutes 

4.  2ply  Bar/23 22/21  eq: 0,086 (0,142) 
 Player: Opponent:  50,23% (G:18,33% B:1,60%) 49,77% (G:16,02% B:0,71%)  

5.  2ply  Bar/24* 9/7  eq: 0,115 (0,171) 
 Player: Opponent:  47,40% (G:20,29% B:2,14%) 52,60% (G:13,55% B:0,69%)  


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 810570 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Woolsey
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#2 GG
  White is Player 2
score: 1 pip: 145  2 point match Crawford  pip: 137 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCBCAbBabcbbAaA:0:0:1:21:0:1:1:2:10 
Blue to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22  eq: +0,433 
 Player: Opponent:  54,33% (G:17,33% B:1,92%) 45,67% (G:13,24% B:0,70%)  Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,425...+0,441)  [100,0%] Duration: 19 minutes 09 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 8/6  eq: +0,385 (0,048) 
 Player: Opponent:  49,74% (G:19,51% B:6,62%) 50,26% (G:13,37% B:2,09%)  Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,376...+0,394)  [0,0%] Duration: 25 minutes 49 seconds 

3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 24/22  eq: +0,365 (0,068) 
 Player: Opponent:  50,33% (G:17,90% B:6,24%) 49,67% (G:12,91% B:1,31%)  Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,356...+0,373)  [0,0%] Duration: 24 minutes 59 seconds 

4.  4ply  Bar/23 22/21  eq: +0,363 (0,070) 
 Player: Opponent:  51,02% (G:17,15% B:1,23%) 48,98% (G:15,38% B:0,60%)  

5.  3ply  Bar/24* 9/7  eq: +0,357 (0,076) 
 Player: Opponent:  47,47% (G:20,40% B:2,18%) 52,53% (G:13,87% B:0,79%)  


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 87914150 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Woolsey
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#3
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 145  Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver  pip: 137 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCBCAbBabcbbAaA:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10 
Blue to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22  eq: +0,159 
 Player: Opponent:  52,74% (G:19,61% B:1,11%) 47,26% (G:12,09% B:0,48%)  Conf.: ± 0,025 (+0,134...+0,184)  [100,0%] Duration: 44 minutes 44 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 8/6  eq: +0,095 (0,064) 
 Player: Opponent:  49,19% (G:22,30% B:2,56%) 50,81% (G:13,27% B:0,78%)  Conf.: ± 0,019 (+0,075...+0,114)  [0,0%] Duration: 53 minutes 22 seconds 

3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 24/22  eq: +0,088 (0,071) 
 Player: Opponent:  49,57% (G:20,87% B:2,03%) 50,43% (G:12,30% B:0,59%)  Conf.: ± 0,018 (+0,070...+0,106)  [0,0%] Duration: 52 minutes 18 seconds 

4.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/23 22/21  eq: 0,006 (0,165) 
 Player: Opponent:  49,36% (G:19,33% B:1,87%) 50,64% (G:18,25% B:0,75%)  Conf.: ± 0,017 (0,024...+0,011)  [0,0%] Duration: 43 minutes 17 seconds 

5.  2ply  Bar/24* 9/7  eq: +0,000 (0,159) 
 Player: Opponent:  47,40% (G:20,29% B:2,14%) 52,60% (G:13,55% B:0,69%)  


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13364776 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
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#4 GS
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 145  2 point match Crawford  pip: 137 score: 1
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCBCAbBabcbbAaA:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10 
Blue to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22  eq: 0,206 
 Player: Opponent:  51,97% (G:24,13% B:3,16%) 48,03% (G:12,25% B:1,01%)  Conf.: ± 0,007 (0,213...0,198)  [100,0%] Duration: 24 minutes 14 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 24/22  eq: 0,299 (0,093) 
 Player: Opponent:  48,79% (G:26,51% B:7,65%) 51,21% (G:13,74% B:1,57%)  Conf.: ± 0,009 (0,308...0,290)  [0,0%] Duration: 31 minutes 24 seconds 

3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 8/6  eq: 0,320 (0,115) 
 Player: Opponent:  48,53% (G:27,14% B:8,92%) 51,47% (G:14,55% B:1,49%)  Conf.: ± 0,009 (0,329...0,312)  [0,0%] Duration: 29 minutes 20 seconds 

4.  2ply  Bar/24* 9/7  eq: 0,323 (0,118) 
 Player: Opponent:  47,40% (G:20,29% B:2,14%) 52,60% (G:13,55% B:0,69%)  

5.  2ply  Bar/23 22/21  eq: 0,337 (0,131) 
 Player: Opponent:  50,20% (G:19,94% B:1,99%) 49,80% (G:17,05% B:0,78%)  


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 85173763 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Woolsey
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# 5 DMP
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 145  1 point match  pip: 137 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBCBCAbBabcbbAaA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 
Blue to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22  eq: +0,045 
 Player: Opponent:  52,24% (G:24,48% B:3,60%) 47,76% (G:14,62% B:0,94%)  Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,040...+0,050)  [100,0%] Duration: 1 hour 47 minutes 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/23 22/21  eq: 0,038 (0,083) 
 Player: Opponent:  48,09% (G:23,25% B:6,46%) 51,91% (G:18,84% B:1,48%)  Conf.: ± 0,006 (0,044...0,032)  [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes 

3.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 24/22  eq: 0,038 (0,083) 
 Player: Opponent:  48,08% (G:26,49% B:8,94%) 51,92% (G:12,86% B:1,26%)  Conf.: ± 0,006 (0,045...0,032)  [0,0%] Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes 

4.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 8/6  eq: 0,046 (0,091) 
 Player: Opponent:  47,71% (G:27,70% B:9,63%) 52,29% (G:13,74% B:1,92%)  Conf.: ± 0,006 (0,052...0,039)  [0,0%] Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes 

5.  3ply  Bar/23 9/8  eq: 0,026 (0,071) 
 Player: Opponent:  48,69% (G:17,43% B:1,21%) 51,31% (G:16,45% B:0,62%)  


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 25048897 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Woolsey
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#6 VARIATION WITH ANCHOR DMP
  White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 145  1 point match  pip: 154 score: 0
Blue is Player 1  
XGID=bBBBCAbBabcbbBaA:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:1:10 
Blue to play 21 
1.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/22  eq: 0,104 
 Player: Opponent:  44,82% (G:17,68% B:2,07%) 55,18% (G:19,20% B:1,65%)  Conf.: ± 0,006 (0,109...0,098)  [100,0%] Duration: 19 minutes 06 seconds 

2.  Rollout^{1}  Bar/24* 8/6  eq: 0,135 (0,031) 
 Player: Opponent:  43,26% (G:21,18% B:7,42%) 56,74% (G:18,79% B:2,17%)  Conf.: ± 0,007 (0,141...0,128)  [0,0%] Duration: 23 minutes 26 seconds 

3.  XG Roller++  Bar/23 22/21  eq: 0,128 (0,024) 
 Player: Opponent:  43,61% (G:15,97% B:1,16%) 56,39% (G:21,14% B:1,25%)  

4.  XG Roller++  Bar/23 9/8  eq: 0,142 (0,038) 
 Player: Opponent:  42,92% (G:14,54% B:0,78%) 57,08% (G:17,69% B:0,75%)  

5.  XG Roller++  Bar/24* 24/22  eq: 0,143 (0,039) 
 Player: Opponent:  42,86% (G:16,62% B:1,50%) 57,14% (G:16,13% B:0,67%)  


^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 96813240 Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Woolsey