BGonline.org Forums

Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 10 April 2012, at 1:06 a.m.

In Response To: Six Related Fourth-Roll Cubes (Paul Weaver)

I originally thought that running was the best play with 64 or 65 on the third roll in all six of these positions. However, if you look at the rollout results of Positions 2A and 2B posted below, you will see that 62S-55A-64$ is better than 62S-55A-64R.

Position 1A. 62S-55A-65R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B--CaA--adEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	58.92% (G:28.34% B:0.73%)	59.19% (G:29.22% B:0.79%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	41.08% (G:8.35% B:0.43%)	40.81% (G:8.60% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.381	+0.787
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.485	±0.006 (+0.479..+0.491)
Double/Take:	+0.453 (-0.031)	±0.009 (+0.444..+0.463)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.515)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.4%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 1B. 62S-55A-65$-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCaA---dE---c-ea---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.82% (G:32.31% B:1.09%)	61.30% (G:33.13% B:1.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.18% (G:9.42% B:0.48%)	38.70% (G:9.57% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.451	+0.934
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.536 (-0.089)	±0.008 (+0.528..+0.544)
Double/Take:	+0.625	±0.014 (+0.611..+0.639)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.375)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 1C. 62S-55A-65D-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCaA---cEa--cae----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.88% (G:31.40% B:2.05%)	60.30% (G:32.52% B:2.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.12% (G:9.74% B:0.47%)	39.70% (G:9.90% B:0.52%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.430	+0.908
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.489 (-0.101)	±0.008 (+0.480..+0.497)
Double/Take:	+0.590	±0.015 (+0.575..+0.604)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.410)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 49 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 2A. 62S-55A-64R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B--CaA-a-dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.23% (G:29.79% B:0.83%)	59.57% (G:30.60% B:0.91%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.77% (G:8.52% B:0.45%)	40.43% (G:8.64% B:0.45%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.401	+0.831
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.498 (-0.006)	±0.004 (+0.495..+0.502)
Double/Take:	+0.504	±0.005 (+0.499..+0.509)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.496)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		96.5%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 2B. 62S-55A-64$-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-CaA---dE---c-ea---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.28% (G:30.10% B:0.98%)	59.66% (G:31.07% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.72% (G:10.15% B:0.50%)	40.34% (G:10.42% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.390	+0.808
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.484	±0.003 (+0.480..+0.487)
Double/Take:	+0.482 (-0.001)	±0.005 (+0.477..+0.487)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.516)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.3%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		68.3%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 2C. 62S-55A-64R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-CaA---cEa--cae----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.60% (G:31.47% B:1.99%)	59.92% (G:32.49% B:2.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.40% (G:10.00% B:0.52%)	40.08% (G:10.25% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.421	+0.881
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.496 (-0.063)	±0.010 (+0.486..+0.505)
Double/Take:	+0.558	±0.014 (+0.544..+0.573)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.442)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 52 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 3A. 63S-55A-65R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B--CaA--adE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.30% (G:29.20% B:0.83%)	59.62% (G:30.06% B:0.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.70% (G:8.57% B:0.44%)	40.38% (G:8.76% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.396	+0.818
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.493	±0.003 (+0.490..+0.496)
Double/Take:	+0.492 (-0.001)	±0.005 (+0.488..+0.497)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.507)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.1%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		59.8%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 42 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 3B. 63S-55A-65$-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCaA---dE---c-e-a--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.26% (G:30.64% B:0.99%)	60.75% (G:31.78% B:0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.74% (G:9.62% B:0.50%)	39.25% (G:10.02% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.420	+0.873
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.521 (-0.043)	±0.009 (+0.511..+0.530)
Double/Take:	+0.563	±0.014 (+0.549..+0.577)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.437)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 33 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 3C. 63S-55A-65D-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCaA---cE-a-cae----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.73% (G:31.72% B:2.01%)	61.08% (G:33.06% B:2.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.27% (G:9.68% B:0.49%)	38.92% (G:9.85% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.450	+0.950
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.517 (-0.120)	±0.009 (+0.508..+0.527)
Double/Take:	+0.638	±0.016 (+0.622..+0.654)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.362)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 45 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 4A. 63S-55A-64R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B--CaA-a-dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.48% (G:30.34% B:0.91%)	59.73% (G:31.55% B:0.94%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.52% (G:8.54% B:0.48%)	40.27% (G:8.91% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.412	+0.851
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.503 (-0.023)	±0.009 (+0.493..+0.512)
Double/Take:	+0.525	±0.014 (+0.512..+0.539)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.475)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.6%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 21 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 4B. 63S-55A-64$-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-CaA---dE---c-e-a--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.95% (G:31.54% B:1.05%)	61.26% (G:32.72% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.05% (G:9.70% B:0.49%)	38.74% (G:10.05% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.443	+0.914
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.557 (-0.040)	±0.009 (+0.548..+0.567)
Double/Take:	+0.597	±0.017 (+0.581..+0.614)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.403)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 37 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 4C. 63S-55A-64D-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-CaA---cE-a-cae----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.17% (G:31.70% B:1.96%)	60.44% (G:32.23% B:2.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.83% (G:10.25% B:0.51%)	39.56% (G:10.33% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.432	+0.893
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.508 (-0.067)	±0.009 (+0.499..+0.518)
Double/Take:	+0.575	±0.015 (+0.560..+0.591)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.425)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 5A. 64S-55A-65R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B--CaA--adE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.31% (G:29.86% B:0.85%)	59.58% (G:30.95% B:0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.69% (G:8.76% B:0.45%)	40.42% (G:8.98% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.401	+0.830
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.502 (-0.001)	±0.003 (+0.499..+0.505)
Double/Take:	+0.503	±0.005 (+0.498..+0.508)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.497)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		58.9%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 10 hours 42 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 5B. 64S-55A-65$-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCaA---dE---c-e--a-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.43% (G:31.67% B:1.00%)	61.93% (G:33.31% B:1.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.57% (G:9.23% B:0.46%)	38.07% (G:9.71% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.458	+0.961
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.563 (-0.094)	±0.008 (+0.555..+0.571)
Double/Take:	+0.657	±0.014 (+0.643..+0.671)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.343)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 5C. 64S-55A-65D-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B-aCaA---cE--acae----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.16% (G:31.28% B:2.01%)	60.36% (G:32.39% B:2.55%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.84% (G:10.14% B:0.50%)	39.64% (G:10.35% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.430	+0.896
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.495 (-0.092)	±0.010 (+0.485..+0.505)
Double/Take:	+0.586	±0.016 (+0.571..+0.602)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.414)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 6A. 64S-55A-64R-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-B--CaA-a-dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.06% (G:30.48% B:0.86%)	59.49% (G:31.23% B:0.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.94% (G:8.86% B:0.48%)	40.51% (G:9.07% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.401	+0.831
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.486 (-0.013)	±0.005 (+0.482..+0.491)
Double/Take:	+0.499	±0.007 (+0.492..+0.506)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.501)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.9%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 51 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 6B. 64S-55A-64$-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-CaA---dE---c-e--a-B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60.43% (G:30.43% B:0.99%)	60.78% (G:31.22% B:1.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39.57% (G:9.89% B:0.51%)	39.22% (G:10.04% B:0.54%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.419	+0.864
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.530 (-0.024)	±0.008 (+0.522..+0.539)
Double/Take:	+0.554	±0.014 (+0.540..+0.568)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.446)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.8%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 6C. 64S-55A-64D-C

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 148 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-Ba-CaA---cE--acae----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	59.99% (G:32.12% B:2.07%)	60.48% (G:33.34% B:2.67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40.01% (G:10.26% B:0.54%)	39.52% (G:10.44% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.434	+0.920
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.507 (-0.094)	±0.009 (+0.498..+0.516)
Double/Take:	+0.601	±0.015 (+0.586..+0.616)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.399)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Messages In This Thread

• Six Related Fourth-Roll Cubes
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 8 April 2012, at 2:39 p.m.
  • 6xS-55A-6xR-C (six cube decisions)
    Nack Ballard -- Monday, 9 April 2012, at 1:44 a.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 10 April 2012, at 1:06 a.m.
    • 6xS-55A-6xR-C (rollout data)
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 10 April 2012, at 11:32 p.m.