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Rollout

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Wednesday, 11 April 2012, at 10:21 a.m.

In Response To: Last chance? (Casper van der Tak)

Yeah, I do get gammoned a bunch, but the market losing potential isn't big enough. I pretty much need to hit two and have him stay on the bar with one to actually lose my market here.

I did roll 5-4 and ended up losing a single.
White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 101
5 point match
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-BD-B-a--F--ab-cabb-bA:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 31.84% (G:7.65% B:0.54%) 31.24% (G:7.75% B:0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 68.16% (G:49.77% B:0.74%) 68.76% (G:49.29% B:0.77%)
Cubeless Equities -1.203 -1.110
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.988±0.015 (-1.003..-0.973)
Double/Take:-1.110 (-0.122)±0.014 (-1.124..-1.097)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.988)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.5%
Rollout details
1273 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 36 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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