MCG is right that I messed up the score in Position 3; in real life, White led 2-1. I blame apbg.net. For some reason, when I pasted in the GNU ID, it often got the score and the dice wrong. I went back and tried to fix all the mistakes manually, but evidently I missed one.
OTB, Blue played 13/2. While watching, I thought 6/1* was an alternative. The plays seem to be close.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 149 | | 9 point match | pip: 132
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B-aD-C---bFab-b-cba----:0:0:1:65:0:1:0:9:16 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 6/1* | eq: +0.194 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.84% (G:12.25% B:0.52%)
44.16% (G:12.48% B:0.41%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/2 | eq: +0.170 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.02% (G:11.24% B:0.43%)
43.98% (G:12.12% B:0.34%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0.142 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.64% (G:13.33% B:0.69%)
46.36% (G:12.25% B:0.36%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OTB Blue at first wanted to run but ultimately played 6/1 4/1. This is the DMP play but it gets gammoned more often.
  
 
   
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 54 | | 9 point match | pip: 91
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBCCBA------------cc-cfB-:1:1:1:53:1:0:0:9:16 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 24/16 | eq: -0.766 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
88.20% (G:3.64% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 6/1 4/1 | eq: -0.810 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 12.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.80% (G:8.06% B:0.20%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OTB Blue played safe, which is probably what I would have done as well. Again there's a tricky win/gammon tradeoff to consider. I think hitting still comes out ahead at 8a7a.
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 136 | | 9 point match | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----A-D-Da--dDb--b-bbb--AA:1:1:1:41:0:2:0:9:16 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 13/9* | eq: -0.523 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.92% (G:5.13% B:0.19%)
73.08% (G:23.28% B:1.95%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/24 8/4 | eq: -0.606 (-0.083) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 20.61% (G:2.48% B:0.06%)
79.39% (G:13.27% B:0.57%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OTB Blue rolled the dice pretty quickly here without doubling, which I found surprising. I guess they thought they were TG.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 117 | | 9 point match | pip: 106
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aB-A-BCCB---b-a--bBda-bb--:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:9:16 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.03% (G: 37.71% B: 0.82%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.97% (G: 5.85% B: 0.27%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.799 |
| Double: | +1.597 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.866 (-0.134) |
| Double/Take: | +1.272 (+0.272) |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Drop |
| |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OTB Blue played 13/7. Maybe this is an obvious decision to some but it wasn't obvious to me while I was watching.
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 150 | | 9 point match | pip: 146
score: 7
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b-B--D-B-A-bEa-bb-cb-a--A:0:0:1:62:7:1:0:9:16 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 13/7 | eq: -0.666 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.21% (G:13.56% B:0.99%)
56.79% (G:20.84% B:1.07%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/23 10/4 | eq: -0.759 (-0.093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.56% (G:12.26% B:0.90%)
57.44% (G:23.39% B:0.95%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OTB Blue thought for a long time about 13/12* versus 6/5* and ultimately settled on 6/5*. Falafel challenged them after the game, expressing amazement that they didn't play 13/12*.
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 125 | | 9 point match | pip: 123
score: 7
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBB-aCa----aBC-bb-bdb---A:1:1:1:31:7:1:0:9:16 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 13/12* | eq: -0.267 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.81% (G:20.84% B:0.75%)
50.19% (G:18.77% B:1.15%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 6/5* | eq: -0.308 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.27% (G:27.91% B:1.50%)
49.73% (G:22.45% B:1.30%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | Bar/22 14/13 | eq: -0.576 (-0.309) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.45% (G:12.20% B:0.44%)
62.55% (G:24.05% B:0.76%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
OTB this went D/T. Blue may have had a technical double a roll or two earlier but the take would have been trivial. Here it might also seem at first glance that the take is easy but it isn't. I wouldn't be shocked if a rollout declared this to be a close drop.
| | White is Player 2
score: 7
pip: 136 | | 9 point match | pip: 131
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-c--CCC----B-C-aaa-bbbab-A:0:0:1:00:3:7:0:9:16 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ |
| Player Winning Chances: | 57.87% (G: 25.28% B: 3.79%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 42.13% (G: 17.91% B: 0.45%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.175 |
| Double: | +0.944 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.595 (-0.349) |
| Double/Take: | +0.944 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.056) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross