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Nordic 2012 - DK v. World Match Files + Recap
Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer In Response To: Nordic 2012 - DK v. World Match Files + Recap (Matt Cohn-Geier)
Date: Monday, 23 April 2012, at 9:02 a.m.
>> Or the luckier you got.
The more you practice, the luckier you get.
:-)
In the short run, you have a point of course, and the chart I'm showing here is not based on harvesting a huge population of data, obviously... But I think that you will find these numbers (MCW Loss vs. PR) favor the "good" players - call it luck, call it clutch, call it experience.
And like I stated in my original post, this hold true particular for clocked matches with time pressure, where you might err on important decisions, due to less than optimal time management.
I recall watching your speed match vs. Bredahl (in which you played the low PRs and he had the luck). In the first game, you spend your time relatively early in the match, and find yourself in a 6-man-back-backgame at the score 1-3 with only 13 seconds on the clock! Later in that game, you catch Bredahl and make the transition into a containment game with open high points in your board, but with only 8 seconds on the clock. Personally I think those games are the most time demanding to play correct (not the backgame part, once you are in them, they are fairly easy checkerplay-wise, but the containment part with a difficult board). You end up loosing to a 5-5 joker, ubt with only 4 or 5 seconds left on the clock. Had you won that game, it would have been 3-3 with more play to follow...
You had the low PR by far in that game, but looking at MWC loss, the story was more that of a close one. Maybe you could have done better, given more time in the last crucial part of the game, maybe it was all down to luck. I haven't got the time to look over the errors from that match, and relate them to the time left on the clock - and I don't even know if such an analysis would make sense - but I'm fairly confident that in the long run the "better" player will be able to achieve better "numbers" in this regard, simply because he knows when to perform and he will save himself time enough to do so.
In the 3rd speedmatch between you and Bredahl, you again play the lowest PR, but he have the lowest MWC Loss. In that game, you find yourself in severe time trouble at the end, loosing the match with only 1 second left on the clock. However, I must say, I found your time management in that match to be better than it appeared on the clock - it turned out to be a very long match at the end, with a lot of decisions, and you had indeed saved yourself time to each game in the match, including the last game. But the numbers tell a story: one player was pressured by the clock, and he erred on more expensive decisions than his opponent. It might have been luck, surely.
I saw the Danes do the same in other matches this year (spending too much time early in games where they could have spent it better later), your's just popped to mind.
I think Tardieu (who was one of the best players ever) had a big challenge in this part of his game. I've seen him on a couple of occasions spending far too much time on decisions early in a match, with a low cube value, on a move that wouldn't really swing much equity anyway, bringing him self into unnecessary difficult situations later in those matches, due to time pressure.
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