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What do the XG confidence brackets mean?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 25 April 2012, at 5:26 p.m.

In Response To: What do the XG confidence brackets mean? (leobueno)

As far as I know, XG just uses the normal distribution to convert between standard deviations and confidence numbers, so at least if there are just two plays, 1 standard deviation corresponds to 68.27%, 2 standard deviations correspond to 95.45%, and 3 standard deviations correspond to 99.73%.

mtuhtan wrote:

Those are the chances to be the the best move.

Strictly speaking, this is not true, because the bots don't use a Bayesian framework. Again, restricting to just two plays for simplicity, a 99% confidence figure for the top play means that there is only a 1% chance that the top play would look this good or better (compared to the other play) if in reality the two plays were equally good.

This is of course assuming that the normal approximation is accurate.

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