[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Daily Quiz 4/15 + Catchy Title!

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Sunday, 29 April 2012, at 9:00 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/15 + Catchy Title! (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 15 april 2012

Number 1

First question: How much wins does blue have? 2,3,7,10 and 11 cover and 1 safes = 27/36 + D5,65,46 = 32/36. So white gets to hit (and probably win) about 12/36 x 4/36 = 48/1296 = almost 4%. And say he wins 10% of the entry on the 1-point = 11/36 x 10% = 3%. So I’ll give white a total winning chance of about 7%.

Second question: Should blue play on for an undoubled gammon? The gammon chances are between 3 to 5% I guess, say 4%. That’s very little, I wouldn’t play on for an undoubled gammon.

Thirs question: Can white take? On 1-a/5-a white will have to win three consecutive times, the chance of this happening is about (1/2)^3 = 12,5%. So he is better off passing the cube.

Answer: DP

Number 2

After this move blue is still a bit behind in the race, so minimizing contact with 13/10(2) 8/5(2) doesn’t seem right. Keeping maximum contact with 8/2(2) wastes pips and gives awkward 6’es and 5’s next move. The intermediate 13/4 13/10 seems the right way here.

Answer: 13/4 13/10

Number 3

What is the gain of playing a) 24/18 4/2, b) 24/16 or c) 8/2 4/2? And can it weigh up against the extra gammons? Let’s first evaluate the basic/safe option 14/6, blue will most probable be able to play his extra ace-anchor checker soon, so gammons will be about 8% I guess.

a) bad: any 2,6 = 20+D1,D3,51 = 24/36; no difference: 31,D5,D4,43,41 = 8/36; double shot: 54,53=4/36

b) bad: any 2,4 = 20+D1,13 = 23/36; no difference: D3,D5,D6 = 3/36; double shot: 63,61,51 = 6/36; single shot: 65,53 = 4/36

c) bad: any 2 = 12/36; no difference: 54,53,43,41,31,D3 to D6 = 14/36 single shot: 65,64,63,61,51 = 10/36

Let’s presume that being hit brings the gammons in a 50% range, so about 40% extra gammons after being hit compared to the basic option.

a) extra gammons: 27%, extra wins: 8%

b) extra gammons: 26%, extra wins: 13%

c) extra gammons: 13%, extra wins: 9%

Because of the 2:1 win:gammon ratio option c) gains more than it costs.

Answer: 8/2 4/2

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.