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Cover whit what? and then?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 5 May 2012, at 2:03 p.m.

In Response To: Cover whit what? and then? (Karl Frogner)

What does Blue want to do? (1) Split. (2) Have builders for the 7 point, for the 3 point, and to guard against a split.

After the play Blue has a small edge in priming (4-prime lacking the 6 point vs. 3-prime with the 7 point) but Opp will have a lot of good numbers. By "good" I mean he can make the 5 point, or 4 point, or 3 point, or run, or hit an outfield blot if there is one, or make the 9 point -- or split small or large, but most number that could split won't, while White is preoccupied with point making and protecting the 9 point blot.

8/4 shouldn't be automatic just because it keeps a guarding builder on the 6 point, since White won't be splitting often and the 8 point builder is needed for the important 7 point. The more important question seems to be 24/20 or 24/22, not 8/4 or 6/4.

All in all, either splitting play looks a lot better than their two non-splitting alternatives 8/4 13/11 and 6/4 13/9. Splitting makes POH numbers worse for Blue (with 24/20 POW numbers being worse than 24/22 POH numbers except for 5-5), but splitting also reduces the number of White's good rolls and gains a lot on all non-POH good numbers (with 24/20 non-POH numbers being a lot better for Blue).

My guess is that 24/20 6/4 gains enough on the 20 numbers that won't point on the 5 point to make up for the 16 that will, considering also that after 24/22 8/4, White's good numbers include both pointing numbers and any number that makes a point in front of Blue's two back checkers.

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