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Thanks! +1

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Monday, 7 May 2012, at 4:01 p.m.

In Response To: Thanks! +1 (Christian Plenz)

There might something else be going on in your data. In XG, there should be a PR correction for one-point-matches. It is a factor of 1.5 that magnifies the size of each of your errors. I think it is only used in true one-pointers, not at DMP scores in longer matches. I don't know how it worked in your export, but if it is not applied in most of your sample, then it neatly explains the observed 160/110 gap.

Anyway, I don't think that's quite what Rick or me were talking about. The interesting question is: How does your expected win rate of 54.64% of one-pointers against your typical opponent compare to your performance against the same typical opponent in longer matches? You probably can't just assume that the PR difference in longer matches will be the same 3.13 (or 1.5*3.13 after the XG correction). But you could probably tell us by looking at your stats!

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