Thanks, leobueno. I had lost track of this one.
Indeed, after missing the double I correctly rejected 18/11* as losing too many gammons, but played safe by breaking the 8 point without considering volunteering a shot by making the 2-point.
As others pointed out, had I doubled I would not be worried about losing gammons and should have played 18/11*.
          
 
            
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 115 | | 7 point match | pip: 128
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---AaCCBB--acB----Bcbb-ba-:1:-1:1:61:4:5:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/11* | eq: +0.107 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.33% (G:12.62% B:1.76%)
50.67% (G:26.98% B:1.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.102...+0.112) - [98.8%]
Duration: 17 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/2 3/2 | eq: +0.099 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.56% (G:13.43% B:0.63%)
51.44% (G:16.76% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.094...+0.104) - [1.2%]
Duration: 14 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 8/7 8/2 | eq: +0.050 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.62% (G:10.28% B:0.36%)
52.38% (G:10.64% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.043...+0.058) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 5/4* | eq: +0.033 (-0.073) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.40% (G:13.17% B:0.54%)
54.60% (G:35.50% B:0.94%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 7/6 7/1 | eq: -0.007 (-0.114) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.20% (G:9.36% B:0.18%)
54.80% (G:11.98% B:0.45%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2