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RO surprise: winning the most games AND most gammons is not the best move...?!

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 14 May 2012, at 4:11 a.m.

In Response To: RO surprise: winning the most games AND most gammons is not the best move...?! (Daniel Murphy)

White entered with 3-1 or 1-1, bar/24 4/1. Big pass. The best nonhitting entering ace is 6-1 bar/24 12/6, about a 0.030 pass.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0

Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White125

2X2X2X '2X2X ' ' ' ' '1X

1X2O2O2X 'aO ' '1O ' '1X
Blue79
Position ID: 22ygACM2/kcAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.6066
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.0000
2.Double, take +1.0922 +0.0922
3.No double +0.8355 -0.1645
Proper cube action:Double, pass
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.73020.16130.0022-0.26980.01690.0005 +0.6066 +0.8355
Standard error0.00150.00120.0002-0.00150.00080.0001 0.0033 0.0075
Player White owns 2-cube0.74830.17280.0025-0.25170.01580.0005 +1.3110 +1.0922
Standard error0.00150.00170.0002-0.00150.00090.0001 0.0071 0.0098
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 914958680 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


Annotation
2-ply cubeless equity +0.4730
0.6716 0.1523 0.0022 - 0.3284 0.0245 0.0003
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.7282
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2718)
3. No double +0.6769 ( -0.0513)
Proper cube action: Double, take

3-ply cubeless equity +0.6240
0.7285 0.1794 0.0016 - 0.2715 0.0138 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.0569 ( +0.0569)
3. No double +0.8099 ( -0.1901)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

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