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RO surprise: winning the most games AND most gammons is not the best move...?!
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: RO surprise: winning the most games AND most gammons is not the best move...?! (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Monday, 14 May 2012, at 4:11 a.m.
White entered with 3-1 or 1-1, bar/24 4/1. Big pass. The best nonhitting entering ace is 6-1 bar/24 12/6, about a 0.030 pass.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0
Move number 5: Blue on roll, cube decision?
White 125
Blue 79 Position ID: 22ygACM2/kcAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE • Blue doubles
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.6066 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, pass +1.0000 2. Double, take +1.0922 +0.0922 3. No double +0.8355 -0.1645 Proper cube action: Double, pass Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7302 0.1613 0.0022 - 0.2698 0.0169 0.0005 +0.6066 +0.8355 Standard error 0.0015 0.0012 0.0002 - 0.0015 0.0008 0.0001 0.0033 0.0075 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7483 0.1728 0.0025 - 0.2517 0.0158 0.0005 +1.3110 +1.0922 Standard error 0.0015 0.0017 0.0002 - 0.0015 0.0009 0.0001 0.0071 0.0098 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 914958680 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Annotation2-ply cubeless equity +0.4730
0.6716 0.1523 0.0022 - 0.3284 0.0245 0.0003
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.7282
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.2718)
3. No double +0.6769 ( -0.0513)
Proper cube action: Double, take
3-ply cubeless equity +0.6240
0.7285 0.1794 0.0016 - 0.2715 0.0138 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.0569 ( +0.0569)
3. No double +0.8099 ( -0.1901)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
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