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RO surprise: 9/5*/2 ... 51: bar/24 21/16* ... ?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 14 May 2012, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: RO surprise: winning the most games AND most gammons is not the best move...?! (Daniel Murphy)

MG. Blue on roll

White123

1X2X2X1X2X2X ' ' ' ' '1X

1X2O2O1X 'aO ' '1X ' '1X
Blue95
Position ID: bW2gCCI2/gcAQA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

Alert: wrong double ( -0.3030)! [very bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.0800
Cubeful equities:
1.No double -0.0017
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +1.0017
3.Double, take -0.3047 -0.3030
Proper cube action:No double, take (23.2%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.45090.22830.0293-0.54910.07710.0022 +0.0800 -0.0017
Standard error0.00160.00170.0013-0.00160.00160.0002 0.0048 0.0100
Player White owns 2-cube0.45390.23800.0289-0.54610.07620.0025 +0.1921 -0.3047
Standard error0.00180.00190.0014-0.00180.00170.0002 0.0104 0.0166
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 914958680 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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