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Daily Quiz 4/23: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 11:23 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/23 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBCCB----C--bb-cbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 76.87% (G: 3.82% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.13% (G: 1.16% B: 0.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.537
Double:+1.125
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.944 (-0.026)
Double/Take:+0.971
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.029)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 159
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aACbDbE------B----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 53.92% (G: 31.69% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.08% (G: 7.75% B: 0.35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.34% (G: 32.37% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.66% (G: 7.71% B: 0.29%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.078
Double:+0.671
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.449
Double/Take:+0.398 (-0.052)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.551)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.435...+0.464)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.378...+0.417)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 159
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 77
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aACbDbE-----B-----bbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.30% (G: 38.37% B: 0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.70% (G: 4.23% B: 0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.58% (G: 39.03% B: 0.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.42% (G: 4.25% B: 0.14%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.246
Double:+1.212
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.721 (-0.236)
Double/Take:+0.958
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.042)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.711...+0.732)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.937...+0.978)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 154
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aBaB--C-B--AdD---b-e-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 66.24% (G: 30.67% B: 0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.76% (G: 8.07% B: 0.35%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.325
Double:+1.093
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.694 (-0.163)
Double/Take:+0.857
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.143)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Still a big double even if we improve White's forward position:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 158
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aBaB--C-B--AdD---c-db---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 63.26% (G: 30.03% B: 0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.74% (G: 8.87% B: 0.40%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.265
Double:+0.933
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.606 (-0.071)
Double/Take:+0.677
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.323)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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