BGonline.org Forums

21S-43 - Another Rollout (4ply/XGR+)

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 4 June 2012, at 4:19 a.m.

Taking the lead from Ken's recent thread I thought I'd toss some games on of this at higher settings to see if it made any difference. As has been my experience with these opening rollouts, jacking up the rollout settings has almost no noticeable effect on the results. It was funny though because between 1k-2k trials I reached 99.9% confidence and hovered around it for quite a while though never achieved 100%. If I had reached 100% I was going to stop there. Variance finally took a turn towards Ken's results and the plays are back to being very close. I'm not interested enough to extend this rollout any more but here it is fwiw.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa---E-C---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 34

1.	Rollout1	24/21 6/2*	eq: -0.133
	Player: Opponent: 47.02% (G:11.83% B:0.49%) 52.98% (G:14.56% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.137...-0.128) - [84.2%] Duration: 1 day 14 hours 27 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/21 13/9	eq: -0.136 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 46.88% (G:12.59% B:0.58%) 53.12% (G:15.05% B:0.67%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.140...-0.132) - [15.8%] Duration: 1 day 10 hours 24 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 7220872 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+