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Rollout surprise

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Monday, 4 June 2012, at 5:19 a.m.

In Response To: Contact bearoff is not so easy (Klaus Evers)

OTB I made the correct play, because in case I get hit on the ace the correct play leaves fewer chances that white can collect the second checker later. Not sure if that is the right explanation.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 16 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aC--B-a--------a--bbbbbb-:1:1:1:42:4:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout15/3 5/1* eq: +0,691
 Player:Opponent: 69,20% (G:40,47% B:0,91%)30,80% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,688...+0,694) - [100,0%]Duration: 21,8 seconds
2.Rollout15/1* 2/Offeq: +0,659 (-0,032)
 Player:Opponent: 67,60% (G:40,83% B:4,32%)32,40% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,654...+0,664) - [0,0%]Duration: 53,6 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

Does cube position make a difference? DMP:

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 1 point match pip: 16 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aC--B-a--------a--bbbbbb-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout15/3 5/1* eq: +0,384
 Player:Opponent: 69,18% (G:41,22% B:0,29%)30,82% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,002 (+0,381...+0,386) - [100,0%]Duration: 23,1 seconds
2.Rollout15/1* 2/Offeq: +0,355 (-0,029)
 Player:Opponent: 67,75% (G:42,87% B:2,91%)32,25% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,351...+0,359) - [0,0%]Duration: 56,7 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

White owns cube on 2:

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 7 point match pip: 16 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aC--B-a--------a--bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:42:4:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout15/3 5/1* eq: +0,456
 Player:Opponent: 69,17% (G:40,46% B:0,90%)30,83% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,452...+0,460) - [100,0%]Duration: 18,2 seconds
2.Rollout15/1* 2/Offeq: +0,395 (-0,061)
 Player:Opponent: 67,80% (G:39,93% B:4,08%)32,20% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (+0,390...+0,401) - [0,0%]Duration: 45,0 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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