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Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 5 June 2012, at 7:29 a.m.

Position 1. When White has only six in the zone, Blue should not be worried about getting hit. Blue should be concerned about finding a way to make his 5pt or improving his timing. 15/13 9/5 helps Blue with one or both of these two objectives.

White is peever score: 0 pip: 205 1 point match pip: 119 score: 0 Blue is othello XGID=----B-C--Aab-B--cbCd-bBBa-:0:0:-1:42:0:0:0:1:10 Blue to play 42 1. Rollout1 15/13 9/5 eq: +0.010 Player: Opponent: 50.51% (G:31.13% B:5.20%) 49.49% (G:6.91% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.005...+0.015) - [99.8%] Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes 2. Rollout1 15/9 eq: -0.001 (-0.011) Player: Opponent: 49.94% (G:29.49% B:4.86%) 50.06% (G:6.95% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.007...+0.004) - [0.2%] Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes 3. Rollout1 9/5 6/4 eq: -0.004 (-0.014) Player: Opponent: 49.82% (G:30.75% B:5.21%) 50.18% (G:7.06% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.008...+0.001) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 01 minute 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is peever score: 0 pip: 205 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 119 score: 0 Blue is othello XGID=----B-C--Aab-B--cbCd-bBBa-:0:0:-1:42:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 42 1. Rollout1 15/13 9/5 eq: +0.282 Player: Opponent: 51.73% (G:26.54% B:1.74%) 48.27% (G:8.66% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.273...+0.292) - [99.8%] Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes 2. Rollout1 9/5 6/4 eq: +0.261 (-0.021) Player: Opponent: 51.00% (G:26.82% B:1.80%) 49.00% (G:8.43% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.251...+0.271) - [0.2%] Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes 3. Rollout1 15/9 eq: +0.260 (-0.022) Player: Opponent: 50.92% (G:25.92% B:1.61%) 49.08% (G:7.58% B:0.31%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.251...+0.270) - [0.1%] Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 2. Making the 9pt looks tempting. It blocks White's 61 62 63 66. Making the 11pt, on the other hand, blocks White's 44, forcing her to break her 8pt. Making the 11pt also gives Blue more shots if White rolls 41 42 43 51 52 53 54 55 64. Finally, making the 11pt allows Blue to play 18/14, releasing a checker from the 18pt so that White's two-prime (her 9pt and 8pt) does not prime Blue's 18pt next roll with four numbers (11 21 22).

White is othello score: 0 pip: 104 1 point match pip: 194 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=---aBBB----A-A--ccCbBcbBa-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:1:10 Blue to play 42 1. Rollout1 18/14 13/11 eq: +0.074 Player: Opponent: 53.71% (G:7.24% B:0.54%) 46.29% (G:30.28% B:5.46%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.070...+0.079) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes 2. Rollout1 13/9 11/9 eq: +0.060 (-0.015) Player: Opponent: 52.98% (G:7.54% B:0.53%) 47.02% (G:30.01% B:5.14%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.055...+0.064) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes 3. Rollout2 18/12 eq: +0.055 (-0.019) Player: Opponent: 52.75% (G:7.99% B:0.65%) 47.25% (G:31.88% B:5.79%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.048...+0.062) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is othello score: 0 pip: 104 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 194 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=---aBBB----A-A--ccCbBcbBa-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 42 1. Rollout1 18/14 13/11 eq: -0.085 Player: Opponent: 52.36% (G:8.98% B:0.34%) 47.64% (G:25.89% B:1.16%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.103...-0.066) - [99.9%] Duration: 24 minutes 09 seconds 2. Rollout1 13/9 11/9 eq: -0.127 (-0.042) Player: Opponent: 51.60% (G:9.05% B:0.35%) 48.40% (G:25.83% B:1.03%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.143...-0.110) - [0.1%] Duration: 24 minutes 18 seconds 3. Rollout1 18/12 eq: -0.164 (-0.079) Player: Opponent: 51.41% (G:8.93% B:0.32%) 48.59% (G:28.15% B:1.19%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.184...-0.143) - [0.0%] Duration: 24 minutes 33 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Messages In This Thread

• Rollout Result Posted
  Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 5 June 2012, at 7:29 a.m.
  • Started New Thread By Mistake
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 5 June 2012, at 7:31 a.m.
    • Original thread begins at BGO Msg. No. 123203
      Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 5 June 2012, at 7:48 a.m.
  • Rollout Result Posted
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 11 June 2012, at 3:38 p.m.