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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 9 June 2012, at 5:07 a.m.

In Response To: Did Someone With Two On The Bar Really Double This? (Paul Weaver)

Beaver for money, but double at -6-5.

It is very unusual to see a position in which both sides win 23% gammons. Blue has a lot of market losing sequences, he is a 55-45 favorite, and cube ownership will have little value for White at this score. Also, the non-trivial 2.6% match-winning backgammons help make this an initial double at the score.

White is Lyurix score: 4 pip: 114 9 point match pip: 128 score: 3 Blue is peever XGID=--aB-CCBBAa-b----abba-c-bB:0:0:1:00:3:4:0:9:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 54.93% (G:22.96% B:2.62%) 55.01% (G:22.77% B:2.56%) Opponent Winning Chances: 45.07% (G:23.57% B:0.75%) 44.99% (G:23.45% B:0.82%) Cubeless Equities +0.138 +0.296 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.148 (-0.030) ±0.007 (+0.141..+0.155) Double/Take: +0.178 ±0.009 (+0.168..+0.187) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.822) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Lyurix score: 0 pip: 114 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=--aB-CCBBAa-b----abba-c-bB:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 54.93% (G:21.67% B:2.17%) 55.16% (G:23.09% B:2.59%) Opponent Winning Chances: 45.07% (G:23.22% B:0.71%) 44.84% (G:23.36% B:0.78%) Cubeless Equities +0.098 +0.237 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.027 ±0.013 (+0.013..+0.040) Double/Beaver: -0.205 (-0.232) ±0.048 (-0.253..-0.157) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.973) Best Cube action: No double / Beaver Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.1% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 17 minutes 52 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

		White is Lyurix score: 0 pip: 114 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=--aB-CCBBAa-b----abba-c-bB:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.04% (G:37.54% B:1.17%)	62.41% (G:38.05% B:1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.96% (G:11.09% B:1.10%)	37.59% (G:11.24% B:1.18%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.506	+1.032
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.716 (-0.052)	±0.011 (+0.705..+0.727)
Redouble/Take:	+0.768	±0.017 (+0.751..+0.785)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.232)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Messages In This Thread

• Did Someone With Two On The Bar Really Double This?
  Paul Weaver -- Friday, 8 June 2012, at 4:35 a.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 9 June 2012, at 5:07 a.m.