Paying now isn't totally unreasonable, but it isn't necessary since Blue still has a bit of time and might get a chance to hit one of White's blots. More interesting to me is the choice between 6/4 6/2 and 6/2 4/2. I played 6/2 4/2 thinking that it was useful to keep a spare on the 6pt. However, 6/2 4/2 strips the 4pt and leaves Blue without a good 3 to play; looking at GNU's temperature map, I think that's the crucial difference between the two safe plays.
        
 
           
 | | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 4
pip: 143 | | 7 point match | pip: 112
score: 4
Blue is Timothy Chow |
|
| XGID=--CaCbD-a--Bb---C--bbbba--:1:1:1:42:4:4:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4 6/2 | eq: -0.051 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.64% (G:12.41% B:0.65%)
56.36% (G:18.51% B:1.57%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.062...-0.040)
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2 4/2 | eq: -0.095 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.34% (G:12.89% B:0.83%)
57.66% (G:19.26% B:2.02%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.106...-0.084)
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/10 | eq: -0.099 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.97% (G:16.88% B:1.64%)
58.03% (G:21.10% B:1.94%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.112...-0.086)
Duration: 2 hours 29 minutes |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross