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thought process 1

Posted By: svilo
Date: Wednesday, 13 June 2012, at 12:29 p.m.

In Response To: thought process 1 (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 118
11 point match
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BbCBC--BbA---c-cB-bab-:0:0:1:53:0:1:0:11:10
Blue to play 53

1.XG Roller++8/3 6/3eq: +0.052
Player:
Opponent:		51.44% (G:8.57% B:0.27%)
48.56% (G:7.79% B:0.12%)
2.XG Roller++13/8 6/3eq: +0.011 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		50.29% (G:6.83% B:0.18%)
49.71% (G:6.94% B:0.12%)
3.3-ply13/10 8/3eq: -0.004 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		49.61% (G:9.29% B:0.47%)
50.39% (G:9.16% B:0.12%)
4.2-ply13/8 4/1eq: -0.092 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:		47.06% (G:6.03% B:0.19%)
52.94% (G:6.65% B:0.11%)
5.2-ply13/8 7/4eq: -0.121 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:		46.24% (G:7.35% B:0.26%)
53.76% (G:8.52% B:0.12%)

Vision laughs at counting... NO! Counting laughs at vision :)
This is my prepost comment. My first impression was this is a NMBJ (No more blots, Joe) position. The bot said otherwise. Only after studyng the analysis numbers I noticed - white is behind in the race in a mutual golden anchor holding game. Then it seemed to me as a routine (9 to 5) job - no more blots and he will either give shots or break anchor, or crunch his home further... But given his surpluses and his retained capital on the midpoint he will have a lot of time to build, to wait for a suitable double. Ah, we have mutual DOUBLE HOLDING game from our golden and midpoints! But if I make my three point - to harras his midpoint for one roll only, I am breaking 2 of my "rules" 1. making 7 points (the 7 point desease) is often wrong as one is left with only one checker to play without breaking a point. 2. leaving a shot in a NMBJ position.
Now, this is not a NMBJ! We are behind in the race and we NEED a swing (a doubles, a hit, or make him waste/crunch) . Hence I should stay! and harras his midpoint so that he cannot play freely.

Thanks, Paul, for the extensive comment.

Many balanced holding positions lose their balance after leaving a shot. Here I have a blocking structure and his 5 checkers behind me and his deuce blot in addition. BECAUSE i am behind I must reasonably squeeze out the other winning chances - from blocking him and making him waste, to holding him and waiting a shot.

Morale:
This is NOT a BALANCED holding game
This is not a 7pt desease
Know the count of every position:)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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