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Daily Quiz 5/5: XGR+ evals (Bill Calton take note)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 3:18 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/5 (Daily Quiz)

Bill, I don't know if you have ever clicked on my "XGR+ evals" posts, but often I offer some brief post hoc analysis, as shown below. Obviously it's not as comprehensive as Stick provides in his recaps, but I'd think you'd learn something from them.

There are a ton of legal options here, and since XG1 never lists more than 32 plays, it's possible that something has slipped through the filter. However, this is my best guess at XG's top 8 plays. I also included the point-switching play 13/7* 4/1*(2). Note that 12/9 10/7* 4/1*(2) may be slightly better than 13/7* 4/1*(2).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 53
1 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBBaA-A-AAA------AAce-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 33

1.XG Roller+10/7* 8/5 7/1* eq: +0.740
Player:
Opponent:		 86.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.01% (G:3.60% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller+12/9 10/7* 7/1* eq: +0.739
Player:
Opponent:		 86.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.03% (G:3.79% B:0.23%)
3.XG Roller+14/11 10/7* 7/1* eq: +0.732 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		 86.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.42% (G:3.61% B:0.24%)
4.XG Roller+13/7* 10/7 8/5eq: +0.729 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		 86.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.54% (G:2.52% B:0.13%)
5.XG Roller+22/19 10/7* 7/1* eq: +0.729 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		 86.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.57% (G:3.57% B:0.21%)
6.XG Roller+12/6 10/7* 7/4eq: +0.728 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		 86.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.61% (G:3.33% B:0.16%)
7.XG Roller+21/18 10/7* 7/1* eq: +0.727 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		 86.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.65% (G:3.61% B:0.22%)
8.XG Roller+13/7* 7/1* eq: +0.724 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		 86.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
13.82% (G:3.97% B:0.30%)
20.XG Roller+13/7* 4/1*(2) eq: +0.703 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		 85.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
14.86% (G:5.88% B:0.55%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Even with a lot of ammo up front, XG doesn't like switching points.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 53
1 point match
pip: 97
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBCCaAB-A-A---------ce-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 33

1.XG Roller+13/7* 7/1* eq: +0.794
Player:
Opponent:		 89.69% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
10.31% (G:1.28% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller+13/7* 4/1*(2) eq: +0.769 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
11.56% (G:0.96% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Again, just a selection of possibilities here. 8/7(2) 3/2*(2) is actually XG1 4-ply's choice, but XGR+ strongly dissents. 8/7(2) 3/2*(2) seems to be the only point-switching play that the bots think is at all viable. The 8pt and the 2pt don't work well together and the 7pt blocks White if she enters on the 1pt.

Note that making the 13pt instead of the 12pt deserves strong consideration. It doesn't block 55 but it provides better coverage if White hops out into Blue's outfield.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 39
1 point match
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBB-B---AA-A----AAbcd-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 11

1.XG Roller+20/17 13/12eq: +0.311
Player:
Opponent:		 65.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.47% (G:13.02% B:0.33%)
2.XG Roller+21/19 15/13eq: +0.303 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		 65.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.86% (G:13.68% B:0.40%)
3.XG Roller+21/19 15/14 13/12eq: +0.302 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		 65.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
34.92% (G:13.07% B:0.38%)
4.XG Roller+21/18 13/12eq: +0.295 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.24% (G:13.33% B:0.36%)
5.XG Roller+20/19 15/12eq: +0.294 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.32% (G:13.96% B:0.37%)
6.XG Roller+20/17 15/14eq: +0.287 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.67% (G:15.07% B:0.60%)
7.XG Roller+20/18 15/13eq: +0.285 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.73% (G:14.75% B:0.38%)
8.XG Roller+20/16eq: +0.285 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.76% (G:15.12% B:0.45%)
9.XG Roller+20/18 15/14 13/12eq: +0.284 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.80% (G:13.80% B:0.36%)
12.XG Roller+8/7(2) 3/2*(2) eq: +0.252 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		 62.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
37.41% (G:13.27% B:0.49%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

The number of spare pips matters a lot, as the two variants below illustrate.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bABBCBD----------bbbbbcA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 77.10% (G: 14.74% B: 0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.90% (G: 6.59% B: 0.04%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.542
Double:+1.213
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.837 (-0.163)
Double/Take:+1.070 (+0.070)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant 1:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 91
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bABBCBD----------bbbcbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 75.53% (G: 13.86% B: 0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.47% (G: 7.77% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.511
Double:+1.095
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.790 (-0.137)
Double/Take:+0.927
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.073)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant 2:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 93
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bABBCBD----------bcbbbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 72.16% (G: 12.56% B: 0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.84% (G: 9.79% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.443
Double:+0.905
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.706 (-0.001)
Double/Take:+0.707
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.293)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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