After a massive rollateer effort initiated from this thread, a second roll "T4" (technical four-score position) has finally been verified by a standard of long 4-ply rollouts, each of which support its top listed play AtS with at least 99.5% confidence. Here are the nacbracs:
..[S Z1.8 W2.5 U6.5, H13 $16 T24 %28] “^228*168 25 10 5 (Petter, Ken)
d[W $0.3 S0.6, Z8 U11 %11] “^829*207 31 20 (David)
s[Z S5.4 H6.3, U9 $11 T13 W17] “^41*20**5 (Mike)
g[$ S1.3 W1.6 %4.8 H5.5, Z11] “^116*108 20 (David, Ken)
Detailed rollouts below.
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/11 | eq: -0.2723 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.67% (G:10.98% B:0.45%)
56.33% (G:15.99% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ±0.0010 (-0.2732...-0.2713) - [99.5%]
Duration: 13 days 21 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/10 | eq: -0.2740 (-0.0018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.37% (G:10.71% B:0.43%)
56.63% (G:15.50% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ±0.0009 (-0.2749...-0.2731) - [0.4%]
Duration: 13 days 16 hours 02 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/21 6/4 | eq: -0.2747 (-0.0025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.93% (G:10.97% B:0.47%)
56.07% (G:17.13% B:0.92%) | Conf.: ±0.0012 (-0.2759...-0.2736) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 days 14 hours 32 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 24/22 24/21 | eq: -0.2788 (-0.0065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.34% (G:9.84% B:0.40%)
56.66% (G:14.90% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ±0.0027 (-0.2815...-0.2761) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 days 12 hours 23 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout4 | 6/1* | eq: -0.2852 (-0.0129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.88% (G:11.75% B:0.38%)
57.12% (G:15.65% B:0.87%) | Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.2897...-0.2806) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 01 hour 08 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout5 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: -0.2882 (-0.0159) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.57% (G:11.20% B:0.44%)
56.43% (G:16.97% B:1.15%) | Conf.: ±0.0062 (-0.2944...-0.2819) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 54 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout5 | 13/8 | eq: -0.2960 (-0.0237) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.91% (G:10.65% B:0.43%)
57.09% (G:15.70% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ±0.0061 (-0.3021...-0.2899) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 50 minutes |
|
| 8. | Rollout5 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: -0.3002 (-0.0280) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.13% (G:11.46% B:0.47%)
56.87% (G:17.21% B:1.21%) | Conf.: ±0.0063 (-0.3066...-0.2939) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 hours 37 minutes |
|
| |
1 228000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
2 168089 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
3 25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
4 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
5 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | | 1 point match | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 6/4 | eq: -0.1176 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.12% (G:11.57% B:1.30%)
55.88% (G:19.24% B:2.69%) | Conf.: ±0.0002 (-0.1178...-0.1174) - [99.6%]
Duration: 45 days 04 hours 42 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: -0.1180 (-0.0003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.10% (G:11.36% B:1.20%)
55.90% (G:19.65% B:3.58%) | Conf.: ±0.0002 (-0.1181...-0.1178) - [0.3%]
Duration: 42 days 13 hours 20 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/21 13/11 | eq: -0.1182 (-0.0006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.09% (G:11.74% B:1.24%)
55.91% (G:19.15% B:2.55%) | Conf.: ±0.0003 (-0.1186...-0.1179) - [0.1%]
Duration: 16 days 07 hours 54 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 24/22 13/10 | eq: -0.1254 (-0.0078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.73% (G:11.50% B:1.20%)
56.27% (G:18.84% B:2.24%) | Conf.: ±0.0009 (-0.1263...-0.1245) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 days 13 hours 46 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout4 | 24/22 24/21 | eq: -0.1282 (-0.0106) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.59% (G:10.40% B:1.02%)
56.41% (G:17.06% B:1.77%) | Conf.: ±0.0010 (-0.1293...-0.1272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 22 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout4 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: -0.1288 (-0.0112) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.56% (G:11.80% B:1.10%)
56.44% (G:19.55% B:3.25%) | Conf.: ±0.0011 (-0.1299...-0.1277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 18 hours 26 minutes |
|
| |
1 829440 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45390162
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
2 207360 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45390162
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
3 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45390162
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
4 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45390162
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 167
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:32:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/10 | eq: -0.4407 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.69% (G:11.79% B:1.30%)
57.31% (G:14.73% B:1.55%) | Conf.: ±0.0010 (-0.4417...-0.4397) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 days 02 hours 51 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/11 | eq: -0.4461 (-0.0054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.97% (G:12.02% B:1.40%)
57.03% (G:15.27% B:1.69%) | Conf.: ±0.0011 (-0.4472...-0.4451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 days 04 hours 16 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 6/1* | eq: -0.4470 (-0.0063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.17% (G:12.48% B:0.93%)
57.83% (G:14.51% B:2.01%) | Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.4485...-0.4455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 14 hours 48 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/22 24/21 | eq: -0.4497 (-0.0090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.43% (G:12.37% B:1.59%)
56.57% (G:15.91% B:1.40%) | Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.4512...-0.4481) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 12 hours 59 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: -0.4513 (-0.0106) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.96% (G:11.88% B:1.35%)
57.04% (G:15.53% B:2.88%) | Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.4528...-0.4498) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 12 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout3 | 13/8 | eq: -0.4539 (-0.0132) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.71% (G:12.16% B:1.09%)
57.29% (G:15.41% B:1.85%) | Conf.: ±0.0029 (-0.4569...-0.4510) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 36 minutes |
|
| 7. | Rollout3 | 24/21 6/4 | eq: -0.4582 (-0.0175) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.13% (G:11.98% B:1.35%)
56.87% (G:16.04% B:1.87%) | Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.4612...-0.4552) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 57 minutes |
|
| |
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large
2 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large
3 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 158 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10 6/4 | eq: +0.1131 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.90% (G:11.76% B:0.94%)
56.10% (G:20.46% B:3.82%) | Conf.: ±0.0007 (+0.1124...+0.1138) - [99.6%]
Duration: 9 days 10 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/11 | eq: +0.1118 (-0.0013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.12% (G:11.47% B:0.88%)
55.88% (G:20.03% B:2.79%) | Conf.: ±0.0006 (+0.1112...+0.1125) - [0.3%]
Duration: 9 days 09 hours 55 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/21 6/4 | eq: +0.1115 (-0.0016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.20% (G:11.37% B:0.99%)
55.80% (G:20.85% B:3.04%) | Conf.: ±0.0007 (+0.1108...+0.1121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 days 10 hours 03 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 13/11 8/5 | eq: +0.1083 (-0.0048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.47% (G:11.94% B:0.88%)
56.53% (G:20.25% B:3.74%) | Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.1067...+0.1098) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 days 16 hours 26 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout3 | 6/1* | eq: +0.1076 (-0.0055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.37% (G:12.01% B:0.80%)
56.63% (G:19.23% B:3.16%) | Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.1061...+0.1091) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 days 00 hour 51 minutes |
|
| 6. | Rollout3 | 24/22 13/10 | eq: +0.1023 (-0.0108) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.62% (G:11.50% B:0.82%)
56.38% (G:20.08% B:2.65%) | Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.1008...+0.1038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 days 19 hours 47 minutes |
|
| |
1 116640 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54874708
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
2 108944 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54874708
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
3 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 54874708
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
David and Ken are currently rolling out third roll plays to make sure that any 4-ply checker play errors that might exist would not overturn the above rollout results. A follow-up report will eventually be posted in this thread (probably by David).
Nack