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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 12:36 a.m.

In Response To: Cube Action In Two "Similar" Positions (Paul Weaver)

In my experience, it is usually better to trail by fewer pips in a holding game. Here, however, White has more equity when trailing by 19 pips than she has when trailing by 11. In the left position, she has to break her board immediately with 11 22 55 52 51 and leave a blot on her 1pt with 32 42 62.

White wins a lot of gammons, considering she is such a big dog in a holding game: She wins 3.68% Gs on the left and 4.44% Gs on the right. She needs to keep her board to have realistic G chances after hitting a shot. This happens more on the right than on the left.

I wonder if there are really some players good enough to get both these positions right over the board. (Certainly not I.) This position did not arise at the -10-3 score. When I saw that White fared better in a money game on the right than on the left, I looked for a score that would make the left a pass and the right a take.

White is shimohei score: 8 pip: 124 11 point match pip: 113 score: 1 Blue is peever XGID=---CcCBa-C--BB-----bbbcb--:0:0:1:00:1:8:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 73.45% (G:10.71% B:0.21%) 73.84% (G:9.91% B:0.19%) Opponent Winning Chances: 26.55% (G:3.68% B:0.10%) 26.16% (G:3.52% B:0.05%) Cubeless Equities +0.530 +1.076 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.885 (-0.115) ±0.006 (+0.879..+0.891) Double/Take: +1.050 (+0.050) ±0.009 (+1.041..+1.059) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is shimohei score: 8 pip: 132 11 point match pip: 113 score: 1 Blue is peever XGID=---CcCBa-C--BBa----bbbbb--:0:0:1:00:1:8:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 71.63% (G:10.70% B:0.16%) 71.85% (G:9.81% B:0.13%) Opponent Winning Chances: 28.37% (G:4.44% B:0.16%) 28.15% (G:4.27% B:0.23%) Cubeless Equities +0.485 +0.990 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.852 (-0.106) ±0.008 (+0.845..+0.860) Double/Take: +0.958 ±0.010 (+0.948..+0.969) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.042) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 13 minutes 03 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Action In Two "Similar" Positions
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 8:52 a.m.
  • Cube Action In Two "Similar" Positions
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 11:40 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 12:36 a.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 2:23 a.m.