The top four plays all include 22-16. I suppose that is the right way to avoid the point-on-head threat as it is a HUGE error to anchor on the 22. Of the deuces, 6-4 is best by a large margin. I suppose that is because only double-twos hit and make a new board point.
Note that some of the suggested plays did not even make the top six. Kudos to Tim who was the only one who found a play in the top three. I certainly didn't over the board.
I find this result most surprising and would love to hear from anyone who could demystifying it.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 115 | | 7 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--a--BD-C--A-B---cecc-A-B-:1:1:1:62:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/16 6/4 | eq: -0.263 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.04% (G:7.50% B:0.70%)
57.96% (G:23.86% B:3.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.275...-0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/16 11/9 | eq: -0.305 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.54% (G:7.23% B:0.64%)
61.46% (G:21.08% B:2.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.316...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/14 | eq: -0.311 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.32% (G:7.18% B:0.57%)
61.68% (G:20.72% B:2.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.322...-0.300) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 22/16 13/11 | eq: -0.382 (-0.119) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.91% (G:6.70% B:0.54%)
64.09% (G:20.99% B:2.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.392...-0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/2* | eq: -0.418 (-0.155) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.92% (G:6.80% B:0.38%)
65.08% (G:22.59% B:1.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.430...-0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/22 11/5 | eq: -0.422 (-0.159) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.45% (G:6.11% B:0.32%)
67.55% (G:18.10% B:0.69%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.431...-0.413) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2