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*Rollouts*

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 1:11 a.m.

In Response To: Cubing against ace pt game (Dmitriy Obukhov)

Wasn't clear to at all if I had a cube or not. I decided to double thinking that there is a fair chance he may drop. Bellow are rollouts of original problem ATS, for money, and variants.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
7 point match
pip: 112
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBC-BBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.98% (G:17.60% B:1.15%) 65.19% (G:17.63% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.02% (G:9.54% B:0.52%) 34.81% (G:9.52% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.407 +0.888
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.631±0.013 (+0.617..+0.644)
Double/Take:+0.558 (-0.073)±0.018 (+0.540..+0.576)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.369)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBC-BBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.12% (G:17.29% B:1.08%) 65.28% (G:17.24% B:1.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.88% (G:9.39% B:0.40%) 34.72% (G:9.51% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities +0.388 +0.779
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.601±0.014 (+0.587..+0.615)
Double/Take:+0.544 (-0.057)±0.017 (+0.527..+0.561)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.399)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Spare in a better place:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBB-BCAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.62% (G:18.47% B:0.98%) 70.89% (G:19.29% B:1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.38% (G:7.41% B:0.27%) 29.11% (G:7.57% B:0.27%)
Cubeless Equities +0.530 +1.089
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.801 (-0.088)±0.009 (+0.792..+0.810)
Double/Take:+0.889±0.015 (+0.874..+0.904)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.111)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Gap on a 3pt:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bC-BBBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.49% (G:17.30% B:1.14%) 67.60% (G:18.01% B:1.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.51% (G:7.93% B:0.33%) 32.40% (G:8.05% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities +0.452 +0.922
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.709±0.014 (+0.695..+0.723)
Double/Take:+0.687 (-0.023)±0.018 (+0.669..+0.704)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.291)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:97.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Spare in a better place:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BBCAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.11% (G:18.83% B:1.01%) 74.47% (G:20.30% B:1.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.89% (G:5.86% B:0.21%) 25.53% (G:5.93% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.620 +1.288
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.894 (-0.106)±0.009 (+0.885..+0.903)
Double/Take:+1.114 (+0.114)±0.015 (+1.100..+1.129)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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