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Rollout and variant: 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 3:19 p.m.

In Response To: 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42 (Timothy Chow)

Some familiar rules of thumb suggest hitting here, e.g., "Attack one checker; prime two checkers." White has several good point-making rolls up front and hitting takes away half her roll. We have a stronger board so we can afford the bold hit. Hitting wins more gammons.

However, the rollout favors 13/7. In general I think perhaps I somewhat undervalue priming compared to attacking.

In the variant below, I've brought a checker from the midpoint into the zone. As in my previous problem (51S-54S-41 versus 54S-41), this has the effect of increasing the relative value of hitting.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-BDA----dD-aac-e----B-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	13/7	eq: +0.075
	Player: Opponent: 56.69% (G:23.24% B:0.68%) 43.31% (G:11.29% B:0.67%) Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.062...+0.088) Duration: 4 hours 11 minutes
2.	Rollout1	7/1*	eq: +0.021 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 54.17% (G:24.43% B:0.75%) 45.83% (G:10.84% B:0.65%) Conf: ± 0.018 (+0.003...+0.039) Duration: 4 hours 58 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

Variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 149 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 140 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-BEA----dC-aac-e----B-:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.	Rollout1	7/1*	eq: +0.116
	Player: Opponent: 55.65% (G:25.71% B:1.02%) 44.35% (G:9.79% B:0.56%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.110...+0.122) Duration: 3 minutes 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/7	eq: +0.115 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 56.90% (G:23.79% B:0.76%) 43.10% (G:10.67% B:0.57%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.108...+0.122) Duration: 3 minutes 57 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 12:11 a.m.
  • 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42
    Stick -- Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 1:18 a.m.
    • 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 2:13 a.m.
  • 53P-63S-33O-44S-C-42
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 1:53 a.m.
  • 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 1:19 p.m.
  • Rollout and variant: 53P-63S-33O-44R-D-T-42
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 3:19 p.m.
    • another variant
      Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 3:42 p.m.
      • 32Z-33A-61U-21L-61U-51H-44S-C-42, rollout
        Nack Ballard -- Friday, 22 June 2012, at 12:26 a.m.
  • 53P-63S-33O-44R-C Rollout (money)
    Stick -- Friday, 22 June 2012, at 2:20 a.m.