There's another way to see how right 22-16 is. Let's vary the other die. In only a couple of cases (involving hitting and pointing) is a play other than 22-16 in the top five. I wish I could say I've learned something here....
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 114 | | 7 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BD-C--A-B---cecc-A-B-:1:1:1:61:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 11/10 | eq: -0.427 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.06% (G:5.28% B:0.18%)
64.94% (G:22.44% B:2.29%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 8/7 | eq: -0.431 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.57% (G:5.54% B:0.20%)
63.43% (G:25.30% B:2.98%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 6/5 | eq: -0.431 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.10% (G:5.38% B:0.20%)
64.90% (G:22.78% B:2.34%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 22/15 | eq: -0.444 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.68% (G:5.46% B:0.20%)
64.32% (G:24.55% B:2.82%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 13/12 | eq: -0.478 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.62% (G:5.05% B:0.18%)
65.38% (G:24.82% B:2.72%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 114 | | 7 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BD-C--A-B---cecc-A-B-:1:1:1:63:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 6/3* | eq: -0.284 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.16% (G:7.30% B:0.24%)
58.84% (G:24.13% B:2.88%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 6/3* | eq: -0.457 (-0.173) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.03% (G:6.47% B:0.22%)
61.97% (G:29.52% B:4.88%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 13/10 | eq: -0.471 (-0.187) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.16% (G:5.28% B:0.19%)
65.84% (G:23.74% B:2.51%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 11/8 | eq: -0.478 (-0.194) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.99% (G:5.04% B:0.20%)
67.01% (G:22.11% B:2.23%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 11/5 6/3* | eq: -0.479 (-0.195) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.06% (G:6.58% B:0.22%)
64.94% (G:26.31% B:3.09%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 114 | | 7 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BD-C--A-B---cecc-A-B-:1:1:1:64:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 11/7 | eq: -0.421 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.79% (G:5.64% B:0.20%)
64.21% (G:23.55% B:2.38%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 8/4 | eq: -0.462 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.11% (G:5.40% B:0.19%)
64.89% (G:24.75% B:2.89%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 22/12 | eq: -0.485 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.10% (G:4.98% B:0.18%)
66.90% (G:22.86% B:2.24%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/3* | eq: -0.531 (-0.110) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.54% (G:6.57% B:0.23%)
65.46% (G:28.46% B:3.78%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 11/7 | eq: -0.539 (-0.119) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.30% (G:4.89% B:0.18%)
67.70% (G:25.21% B:2.38%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 114 | | 7 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BD-C--A-B---cecc-A-B-:1:1:1:65:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 8/3* | eq: -0.351 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.37% (G:6.92% B:0.22%)
61.63% (G:23.71% B:2.65%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 22/11 | eq: -0.486 (-0.135) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.20% (G:4.83% B:0.18%)
67.80% (G:21.28% B:2.08%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 11/6 | eq: -0.527 (-0.176) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.72% (G:4.69% B:0.16%)
69.28% (G:21.34% B:2.01%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 13/8 | eq: -0.527 (-0.176) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.07% (G:4.91% B:0.18%)
67.93% (G:23.63% B:2.50%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 8/3* | eq: -0.544 (-0.193) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.34% (G:6.31% B:0.21%)
64.66% (G:30.29% B:4.87%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 114 | | 7 point match | pip: 165
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BD-C--A-B---cecc-A-B-:1:1:1:66:3:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 13/7(2) 11/5 | eq: -0.425 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.89% (G:5.59% B:0.21%)
68.11% (G:17.09% B:1.14%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 22/10 13/7(2) | eq: -0.481 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.63% (G:5.24% B:0.20%)
69.37% (G:18.43% B:1.39%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 22/16 13/7(2) 8/2 | eq: -0.549 (-0.124) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.81% (G:4.82% B:0.15%)
71.19% (G:19.65% B:1.61%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 22/4 11/5 | eq: -0.554 (-0.130) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.34% (G:4.93% B:0.18%)
71.66% (G:19.24% B:1.51%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 22/10 13/7 11/5 | eq: -0.612 (-0.187) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.58% (G:4.53% B:0.17%)
71.42% (G:23.21% B:2.15%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2