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BGonline.org Forums
a better way to pick the giants(assuming the giants are the best)
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: a better way to pick the giants(assuming the giants are the best) (Phil Simborg)
Date: Thursday, 21 June 2012, at 2:53 p.m.
It's true that I hijacked this thread; mea culpa. I was really responding to Stick's question about motivation, not reopening the question of who the best player is.
If what Stick says about David Wells is true—and I have no reason to doubt him—then I fully understand why he doesn't want to play David. I was completely unaware.
Regarding Stick cheating online: I would be very surprised if Stick were cheating online. However, I can see why some people might be suspicious, because there is some evidence that his online PR is lower than his live PR. As I mentioned here, Iancho's PR data, which I believe are based entirely on online play (in Stick's case at least), indicate that when Stick plays online, his PR exceeds 2.64 only 25% of the time, but in 4 out of his 5 singles matches in Pittsburgh, his PR exceeded 2.9. This could of course be a fluke, or it could be that the opponents that Stick faced in Pittsburgh were significantly different from his online opponents. My guess, though, is that Stick is simply more comfortable playing online than in a live tournament, simply because he does it far more often.
Backgammon blunders are a curious thing (and by a blunder here, I mean a bone-headed goof, not something that loses x% equity). Why do we make plays that, after the fact, seem so obviously wrong? This is a highly psychological issue and it may not be possible to point to specific reasons. Anything little thing that disturbs our equanimity could have an effect. I'm guessing—and Stick is in the best position to comment on this—that some of his mistakes in Pittsburgh had him slapping himself on the forehead, wondering what on earth he was thinking when he made the play.
In any case, this seems to me to be the most plausible reason for a difference for an online PR being somewhat lower than a live PR, for someone who plays a ton of matches online. However, others might see this as evidence of cheating. If someone falsely insinuated that I were cheating, I wouldn't let it get to me. I'd think about how often bots get accused of cheating and be happy at how infrequently I get accused by comparison.
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