[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

5a-5a recube action?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 22 June 2012, at 2:42 a.m.

In Response To: 5a-5a recube action? (John O'Hagan)

  • Double/Pass is 5a 3a or 35% ME
  • Double/Take/Lose is 5a 1a C or 16% ME
  • Double/Take/win is 1a 5a C or 84% ME

We are risking 19% to gain 49% for a dead cube take point of ~28%. Of course the cube isn't dead but with the low 8 cube take point we don't get a ton of use out of it. Let's estimate it's worth about 3% bringing our dead cube take point to a cube adjusted take point of 25%.

Now gammons. At the score they are hardly worth much since most of their value is overage. Their exact value is .23, or less than half of money. Here I would ignore them for the most part thinking both players win roughly the same amount of gammons and they're obviously on the low end anyway so the fully adjusted take point I'd leave at 25%.

I count 21 covers for the three point and that alone sealed the deal for whether I wanted to cube or not. The double seems clear. What about the take? We have a large racing lead so that even when our opponent does cover I would guess we win 1/5th of the games. That gives us ~4 games out of those 21.

What about the other 15 games? I'd like to address two of them separately, when the opp. rolls 52 and makes the ace point. This should leave our opp. a favorite but not the 4-1 favorite he was by making the prime. I'd guess a lot closer to the 60/40 mark so out of 2 games I'd give us an eight of a game and round it off to 5 total games for us so far.

Now we have 13 games left to examine. The opponent doesn't cover. He'll lift with the aces [41 51 61]. With 65 he makes the bar and that leaves [62 42 22] which play whatever and also leave the blot. 8 games leave the blot, we hit it about 3 games and for the sake of simplification we win those games bringing our total up to 8. The remaining 6 games where he lifts the blot we are maybe 50/50 bringing our grand total to 11 games or just over 30%. Easy take.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.