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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 23 June 2012, at 1:13 a.m.

In Response To: 5a-5a recube action? (John O'Hagan)

Stick's analysis is right on. A clear recube because of the volatility and the fact that you'll get a lot of passes. You then need to estimate wins in each category and then add them all together. Then take/pass accordingly.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 125
13 point match
pip: 88
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBbCB-C-a-aa-----cbbab-A:1:-1:-1:00:8:8:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.03% (G:6.63% B:0.14%) 71.51% (G:6.05% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.97% (G:9.60% B:0.20%) 28.49% (G:11.32% B:0.80%)
Cubeless Equities +0.361 +0.937
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.666 (-0.177)±0.006 (+0.660..+0.672)
Redouble/Take:+0.844±0.009 (+0.835..+0.853)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.156)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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