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Rollout: Blitz cube action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 25 June 2012, at 9:49 p.m.

In Response To: Blitz cube action (Timothy Chow)

I wonder how many readers assume that because the score is 4a2a and the position is posted on BGO, it must be a double, and proclaim that it's a double even though they wouldn't double OTB.

The rollout says ND/T. Playing against XG, I doubled. I still don't feel too bad about doubling against a stronger opponent here.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 143
7 point match
pip: 134
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--B-ADbBA---Da--cbcc-A---:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 52.96% (G: 13.54% B: 0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.04% (G: 11.99% B: 1.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.15% (G: 13.54% B: 0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.85% (G: 11.95% B: 0.95%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:-0.013
Double:+0.371
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.404
Double/Take:+0.371 (-0.033)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.596)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
3853 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.393...+0.416)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.358...+0.384)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 hours 03 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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