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Daily Quiz 5/9 - *ROLLOUT*

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 26 June 2012, at 11:37 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/9 - *ROLLOUT* (David Rennie)

David Rennie wrote:

I extended it to 2592, at which point the confidence level of 5(2) seemed high enough to stop.

This is just my personal viewpoint, but I usually don't pay any attention to the confidence level; all I care about is the size of the confidence interval. That is, I'll quit if the confidence interval is small, regardless of what percentage figure appears next to the top play, and I'll keep going if the confidence interval is large (and provided I have enough patience/computer power), even if the bot says it's 100% confident.

Who really cares which play is "better"? For the purposes of understanding what's going on, what you really want are sufficiently accurate equity estimates.

The two candidate moves seem like totally different gameplans, no?

If you take almost any interesting decision and tinker with the position a bit, you can usually get two contrasting plays to yield nearly equal equities. It stands to reason that this will also happen by random chance occasionally.

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