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Bob Koca, ask not for whom the bell tolls

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 28 June 2012, at 4:08 p.m.

In Response To: Bob Koca, ask not for whom the bell tolls (Timothy Chow)

To expand on that point suppose you asked 1000 people to guess results of 100 coin flips. There will be about 50 who show an ability better than guessing with 95 % confidence. There is an effect like that going on here since you chose the best online PR. It is more likely that it belongs to someone who outperformed throught luck than underperformed.

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