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Is this another chance to open up a 2nd blot? — Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 8:06 a.m.

In Response To: Is this another chance to open up a 2nd blot? (Taper_Mike)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 79
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 71
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-EDC--a---a---a------efA:1:-1:1:46:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 46

1.Rollout1Bar/19 5/1* eq: +0.8575
Player:
Opponent:
84.43% (G:21.05% B:0.82%)
15.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0031 (+0.8544...+0.8606) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/15eq: +0.8116 (-0.0460)
Player:
Opponent:
87.09% (G:10.77% B:0.35%)
12.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.8093...+0.8138) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12967706
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Jul-22
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Flashcard PositionID 000649.xgp
gnubg-MusicLover_0p_2012-07-22.sgf, Game 11, Move 40

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

With all those spares looming over the open 1pt and 2pt, Blue should surely hit! He will often make a 4th, and occassionally even a 5th, inner board point. When the hit works, Blue can then pick up one or two extra White blots, and skate home to a gammon win. As Neil points out, when it doesn’t work, and Blue is hit, he should have no trouble entering, and will be competetive in the resulting position.

The cubeless win percentages tell a powerful story. Hitting wins 2.7% fewer games overall, but makes up for it by doubling Blue’s chance to win a gammon. After hitting, Blue wins a gammon 21% of the time, compared to only 10.8% when he foregoes hitting.

Mike

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