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Experts disagreed on this one

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Friday, 27 July 2012, at 12:30 a.m.

In Response To: Experts disagreed on this one (Timothy Chow)

It's pretty simple, you have 4 builders and he has only 42 44 22 (4 rolls) to make your 5 point, so 16 x 32 / 1296. You could estimate that as ~1/2 x 8/9 (a little less than 8/18), or as 512 / 1296 = about 1/2.5 or so. Or you could just say somewhere around 40%.

It's not very difficult to realize OTB that 4 builders x 32/36 rolls is about 40%. Of course that is just a basic count and doesn't address positional stuff like what you will do if he rolls 66 or 64 and makes the bar, etc.

Messages In This Thread

• Experts disagreed on this one
  Martin -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 4:20 p.m.
  • Experts disagreed on this one
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 4:22 p.m.
    • Experts disagreed on this one
      Stick -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 4:44 p.m.
      • Experts disagreed on this one
        Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 5:03 p.m.
        • Experts disagreed on this one
          6stones -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 5:56 p.m.
          • Experts disagreed on this one
            Stick -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 7:06 p.m.
            • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
              6stones -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 2:03 p.m.
              • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                Bob Koca -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 3:09 p.m.
                • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 6:04 p.m.
                  • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                    Bob Koca -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 7:30 p.m.
                    • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 12:10 a.m.
                      • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 7:26 a.m.
                        • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 12:41 p.m.
                          • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 4:42 p.m.
                        • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 29 July 2012, at 6:49 p.m.
                  • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 4:27 a.m.
                  • Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs
                    Bob Koca -- Saturday, 28 July 2012, at 4:44 a.m.
          • Experts disagreed on this one
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 12:06 a.m.
  • Experts disagreed on this one
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 4:53 p.m.
    • Experts disagreed on this one
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 5:03 p.m.
  • Experts disagreed on this one
    Keene -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 5:02 p.m.
  • Experts disagreed on this one
    Prince Barlow -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 11:05 p.m.
  • Experts disagreed on this one
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 26 July 2012, at 11:51 p.m.
    • Experts disagreed on this one
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 12:30 a.m.
      • Experts disagreed on this one
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 12:59 a.m.
    • Experts disagreed on this one
      neilkaz -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 3:45 p.m.
  • Experts disagreed on this one
    leemo -- Friday, 27 July 2012, at 3:06 a.m.
  • 4-ply RO
    Martin -- Sunday, 29 July 2012, at 10:26 a.m.