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Stick vs Ray: NOBODY Gets This 55 Right OTB

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 30 July 2012, at 7:25 p.m.

Question for Stick: During your match against Ray in Michigan, when Ray made his 5pt with 55, did you realize he was not making the best play? Brief commentary appears below the two side-by-side positions.





White is stick

score: 5
pip: 221
11 point match
pip: 138
score: 5

Blue is ray
XGID=bbbBB-BB---BbB-Bac-cA-----:1:-1:1:55:5:5:0:11:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout115/5 13/8(2)eq: +0.601
Player:
Opponent:		62.83% (G:38.74% B:10.54%)
37.17% (G:1.88% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.590...+0.611) - [78.3%]
Duration: 57 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout115/10 15/5 13/8eq: +0.595 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		62.57% (G:38.77% B:10.56%)
37.43% (G:2.26% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.584...+0.605) - [21.7%]
Duration: 57 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout115/5(2)eq: +0.571 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		60.88% (G:38.40% B:11.60%)
39.12% (G:0.86% B:0.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.561...+0.582) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 37 seconds
4.Rollout120/5 13/8eq: +0.569 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		62.74% (G:37.78% B:9.15%)
37.26% (G:2.15% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.559...+0.578) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 39 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is stick

score: 0
pip: 221
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is ray
XGID=bbbBB-BB---BbB-Bac-cA-----:1:-1:1:55:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout115/5 13/8(2)eq: +0.547
Player:
Opponent:		62.60% (G:37.76% B:10.99%)
37.40% (G:1.91% B:0.09%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.537...+0.556) - [90.3%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.Rollout115/10 15/5 13/8eq: +0.538 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		62.33% (G:37.77% B:11.12%)
37.67% (G:2.25% B:0.13%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.528...+0.547) - [9.7%]
Duration: 58 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout120/5 13/8eq: +0.515 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		62.55% (G:36.63% B:9.42%)
37.45% (G:2.18% B:0.10%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.506...+0.523) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59 minutes 50 seconds
4.Rollout115/5(2)eq: +0.509 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		60.51% (G:37.11% B:12.32%)
39.49% (G:0.86% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.499...+0.519) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53 minutes 56 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

If Blue makes his 5pt, White's timing in his 1-2 backgame is strong. By messing around with 15/5 13/8(2), Blue hopes White will hit with a 5, after which Blue will hit back on his 5pt and then make it. This plan will not always work, but when it does, Blue improves his timing. Evidently, it works often enough to be the best play.

Here is a diagram of the position after the best play, 15/5 13/8(2). Wonder how many players would have made this play over the board. Neither I nor me would have ever considered anything other than making the 5pt.





White is stick

score: 5
pip: 221
11 point match
pip: 118
score: 5

Blue is ray
XGID=bbbBBABBB--Bb--Aac-cA-----:1:-1:-1:00:5:5:0:11:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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