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OLM Su 08/05/12

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 6 August 2012, at 1:16 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 08/05/12 (Jason Lee)

–
White is XG Roller++

score: 1
pip: 69
15 point match
pip: 54
score: 4

Blue is BGO Readers
XGID=aBBCCCB------------c-cbbd-:1:1:1:00:4:1:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Rolls of 66 and 55 will force us to leave a blot. Against this is White’s 30% chance to hit, and our 30% probability of reentering on White’s 5pt immediately whenever we are hit. Of course, White is not certain to win even when he does hit.

With one checker closed out, we have 5% chance or less of winning a gammon, but I think the parlay described above represents a reasonable risk. I am not precisely sure what our gammon price is at this score, but I think we are getting it.

Roll

Mike

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