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Reverse split v. big split

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 6 August 2012, at 10:59 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)

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65R-65R-53P-64R-43	3-away, 2-away
Position ID: 4HPwCwCMZ/ADIA Match ID: cAmuADAAEAAE

65R-65R-53P-64R-43, Blue played S

65R-65R-53P-64R-43, Blue played Z

GnuBg has the ability to show side-by-side temperature maps. I used a pair of them to compare the two splitting plays, 43S and 43Z, and a couple of things popped out. The respective POH rolls, 33 31 11 and 44 42 22, hurt a lot more when White makes the 5pt. Specifically, 43S-33 loses 0.25 more equity than 43Z-44; 43S-31 loses 0.08 more than 43Z-42, and 43S-11, 0.24 more than 43Z-22. 43S-44 is an extra POH number for which there is no comparable roll after 43Z. That’s because there is no doublet that moves 2 checkers off the midpoint, and lands them on the 4pt. 43S-55 plays noticably better for White than 43Z-55. With the former, White can safety the blot on his 14pt by playing behind Blue’s blot on the 5pt. No such safety is possible after 43Z-55. The difference in equity between the plays is 0.49. As I said, these are just the things that popped out. There may be other things going on as well. At this score, for instance, D = Down (13/10 13/9) and o = outer (13/9 8/5) both do better than they do in unlimited games. Surprisingly, o even beats S. Mike

Messages In This Thread

• Early Game 43
  Stick -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 4:26 a.m.
  • Early Game 43
    David Rennie -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 4:35 a.m.
    • Early Game 43
      Stick -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 4:40 a.m.
      • Early Game 43
        David Rennie -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 6:42 a.m.
  • Early Game 43
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 7:44 a.m.
    • Early Game 43
      Stick -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 8:15 a.m.
      • Early Game 43
        Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 24 July 2012, at 8:22 a.m.
  • Early Game 43
    lenny -- Wednesday, 25 July 2012, at 6:31 a.m.
  • Early Game 43
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 1 August 2012, at 12:01 a.m.
  • Early Game 43: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 3 August 2012, at 11:31 p.m.
  • 65R-65R-53P-64R-43
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 5 August 2012, at 3:54 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 7:54 a.m.
    • Reverse split v. big split
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 10:59 a.m.
      • Reverse split v. big split
        David Rockwell -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 12:44 p.m.
        • Reverse split v. big split
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 6 August 2012, at 10:01 p.m.
          • Reverse split v. big split
            Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 12:58 a.m.
            • Reverse split v. big split
              Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 1:24 a.m.
              • Reverse split v. big split
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 2:22 a.m.
    • Rollout
      johnk -- Tuesday, 7 August 2012, at 2:01 p.m.